Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 4

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Unión Magdalena		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.25	Watch
	5.25	3.5	1.63
	3.3	3	2.28	Watch
	3.58	2.99	2.33
	7.75	4.14	1.43	Watch
	5.5	3.3	1.67
	3.38	3.08	2.23	Watch
	4.2	3	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.55 ↑ (4.2)	3.26 ↑ (3)	1.97 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
21.3%

Draw
29.6%

Independiente Medellín
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

30.8%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

29.7%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Unión Magdalena - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Magdalena (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ind Medellín (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Magdalena (votes: 2 - 50%). Ind Medellín (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', Colpa Bolano R. R. 🟨,
4', Lastre E. 🟨,
9', 0 - 1, Sandoval L. ⚽,
20', Chaverra L. 🟨,
37', Sandoval L. 🟥,
38', Ramos N. 🟨,
43', Colpa Bolano R. R. ↓, Marquez R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Contreras J. ↓, Tello J. ↑,
46', Lastre E. ↓, Aleman J. ↑,
47', Aleman J. 🟨,
58', Murillo D. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
58', Chaverra F. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
59', Alvarado J. ↓, Loboa H. ↑,
59', Fydriszewski F. 🟨,
65', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
83', Hinojosa R. ↓, Giraldo J. ↑,
84', Mena Perea E. ↓, Palacios J. ↑,
88', 0 - 2, Perlaza B. ⚽, Arizala J. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 0.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ind Medellín is considered a favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:13. (average 0.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Medellín - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 47.17%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
23.07.25	Junior Barranquilla - Unión Magdalena	4:1 ✺
18.07.25	Unión Magdalena - Llaneros SA	0:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
15.06.25	Unión Magdalena - Llaneros SA	0:0 ✺
11.06.25	Deportivo Pasto - Unión Magdalena	3:1 ✺
05.06.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Cali	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTTLT
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
24.07.25	Independiente Medellín - Envigado	3:4 ✺
19.07.25	Boyacá Chicó - Independiente Medellín	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar	1:1 ✺
29.06.25	Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
24.06.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
12.02.25	Independiente Medellín - Unión Magdalena	1:1
08.11.23	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Medellín	0:4
17.05.23	Independiente Medellín - Unión Magdalena	4:0
10.10.22	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Medellín	0:2
17.04.22	Independiente Medellín - Unión Magdalena	0:0
03.08.19	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Medellín	1:1
09.02.19	Independiente Medellín - Unión Magdalena	1:1

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