Match Info

FNL - Round 12

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Yekaterinburg Arena (Yekaterinburg)

Referee: Matveev S. (Rus)


	Ural		SKA Khabarovsk

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.26	7.48
	1.46	4.27	7.7	Watch
	1.6	3.5	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.6)	4.01 ↑ (3.5)	7.03 ↑ (5.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ural
62.9%

Draw
23.6%

SKA Khabarovsk
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

26.4%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

25.1%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ural has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

SKA Khabarovsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ural than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SKA Khabarovsk than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Ural - SKA Khabarovsk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ural (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Ural (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ural will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ural (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Mamin A. (G) 2. Begic S. (C) 4. Bardachev M. 17. Miguel G. 6. Sungatulin F. 13. Akbashev R. 14. Zheleznov Y. 22. Leo Cordeiro 42. Mosin E. 59. Kharin E. 10. Sekulic M.	1. Kuznetsov A. (G) 29. Mukhin A. 21. Gurban G. 30. Shavlokhov D. 91. Noskov E. 17. Anisimov A. 6. Bagiev S. 20. Tur J. A. 55. Aleynikov V. 33. Tsypchenko D. 19. Alcalde J.
Substitutes
5. Ayupov T. 37. Bondarev V. 97. Ishkov I. 16. Italo 11. Karapuzov V. 74. Kiselev D. 46. Mamin A. 20. Markov E. 18. Morozov N. 1. Oparin M. (G) 31. Sergeev M. M. 50. Voronov M.	18. Bolataev D. 63. Borisov D. 14. Bragin V. 8. Emeljanov R. 77. Gurtsiev B. 82. Ilyev D. 78. Imamov I. (G) 96. Maksimenko A.
Coaches
Romashchenko M.	Poddubskiy A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Tsypchenko D. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mosin E. ↓, Ishkov I. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Tsypchenko D. ⚽,
53', Miguel G. ↓, Italo ↑,
61', Akbashev R. ↓, Voronov M. ↑,
61', Sungatulin F. ↓, Bondarev V. ↑,
69', 1 - 2, Ishkov I. ⚽,
75', Tur J. A. ↓, Emeljanov R. ↑,
83', Kharin E. ↓, Karapuzov V. ↑,
83', Alcalde J. ↓, Bragin V. ↑,
87', Shavlokhov D. 🟨,
89', Aleynikov V. 🟨,
90+1', Kuznetsov A. 🟨,
90+4', Anisimov A. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ural won 3.

Ural is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

SKA Khabarovsk is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

SKA Khabarovsk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ural is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ural won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ural won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Ural
Russian Cup
23.09.25	Dinskaya - Ural	1:2 ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Ural - Rotor	0:0 ✺
15.09.25	Ufa - Ural	2:3 ✺
08.09.25	Ural - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:1 ✺
04.09.25	Spartak Kostroma - Ural	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WTWTT
- SKA Khabarovsk
Russian Cup
24.09.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Rodina Moscow	0:3 ✺
Russian FNL
21.09.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Chelyabinsk	1:1 ✺
07.09.25	Rotor - SKA Khabarovsk	1:0 ✺
03.09.25	Arsenal Tula - SKA Khabarovsk	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
24.05.25	Ural - SKA Khabarovsk	3:1
20.10.24	SKA Khabarovsk - Ural	3:3
Russian Cup
25.09.24	Ural - SKA Khabarovsk	1:0
Russian Premier League
17.03.18	SKA Khabarovsk - Ural	0:3
11.09.17	Ural - SKA Khabarovsk	1:1
Russian FNL
06.11.12	SKA Khabarovsk - Ural	0:2
31.07.12	Ural - SKA Khabarovsk	1:1

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