Match Info

FNL - Round 10

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday

Location: BetBoom Arena (Ufa)

Referee: Silantyev K. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	MATCH! Planeta


	Ufa		Ural

	1	X	2
	4.65	3.22	1.85
	4.49	3.35	1.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.57 ↑ (3.82)	3.29 ↑ (3.09)	1.91 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ufa
20.9%

Draw
29%

Ural
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

30.9%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

31.3%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ufa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Ural has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ural's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ufa than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ural than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ural, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Ufa - Ural Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ufa will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Ural will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ufa: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ufa (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ural (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Belenov A. (C) 8. Isaev S. 55. Shlyakov E. 50. Khomukha I. 17. Ozmanov D. 88. Ageyan M. 23. Akhatov D. 24. Mrzljak F. 48. Lukyanov A. 70. Ortiz D. 10. Gystarov R.	57. Selikhov A. (G) 34. Margasov T. 2. Begic S. (C) 4. Bardachev M. 44. Malkevich V. 22. Leo Cordeiro 11. Karapuzov V. 37. Bondarev V. 13. Akbashev R. 42. Mosin E. 10. Sekulic M.
Substitutes
96. Baranovsky A. 40. Chernov A. (G) 77. Chimezie W. 93. Garaev V. 9. Karpuk I. 69. Khanenko I. 21. Matskharashvili N. 19. Mayorov E. 11. Minatulaev O. 45. Tenyaev A. 79. Troyanov K.	5. Ayupov T. 17. Cardoso D. 97. Ishkov I. 16. Italo 59. Kharin E. 46. Mamin A. 20. Markov E. 1. Oparin M. (G) 6. Sungatulin F. 50. Voronov M. 14. Zheleznov Y.
Coaches
Tetradze O.	Romashchenko M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Bardachev M. ⚽,
21', 🟨,
38', Malkevich V. ↓, Kharin E. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 1, Ozmanov D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Bondarev V. ↓, Ayupov T. ↑,
46', Margasov T. ↓, Cardoso D. ↑,
46', Mrzljak F. ↓, Troyanov K. ↑,
62', 🟨,
63', Ozmanov D. ↓, Matskharashvili N. ↑,
63', Karapuzov V. ↓, Voronov M. ↑,
70', Akhatov D. ↓, Chimezie W. ↑,
70', 1 - 2, Voronov M. ⚽,
75', Lukyanov A. 🟥,
77', 1 - 3, Voronov M. ⚽,
78', Akbashev R. ↓, Italo ↑,
80', Gystarov R. ↓, Baranovsky A. ↑,
81', Ortiz D. ↓, Karpuk I. ↑,
87', 🟨,
88', 2 - 3, Matskharashvili N. ⚽,
90+2', Ayupov T. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ufa won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ural may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ural is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ufa won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ufa won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ufa
Russian FNL
07.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Ufa	3:2 ✺
03.09.25	Torpedo Moscow - Ufa	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Ufa - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	4:0 ✺
23.08.25	KAMAZ - Ufa	3:1 ✺
16.08.25	Ufa - Rodina Moscow	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTWLT
- FK Ural
Russian FNL
08.09.25	Ural - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:1 ✺
04.09.25	Spartak Kostroma - Ural	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ural - Fakel	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Ural - Volga Ulyanovsk	4:0 ✺
18.08.25	Torpedo Moscow - Ural	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
11.05.25	Ural - Ufa	2:1
12.08.24	Ufa - Ural	0:2
Russian Premier League
23.04.22	Ural - Ufa	2:1
03.10.21	Ufa - Ural	0:1
07.03.21	Ural - Ufa	0:0
Russian Cup
03.03.21	Ufa - Ural	3:0
Russian Premier League
01.11.20	Ufa - Ural	1:2

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