Match Info

FNL - Round 20

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Yekaterinburg Arena (Yekaterinburg)

Referee: Prokopov A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	MATCH! Planeta, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Ural		Spartak Kostroma

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.55	5.35
	1.68	3.46	5.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.94)	3.51 ↑ (3.1)	5.38 ↑ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ural
55.9%

Draw
26.7%

Spartak Kostroma
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

30.8%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

30.5%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ural has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ural's performance.

Spartak Kostroma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ural than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ural that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spartak Kostroma than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Ural - Spartak Kostroma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
57. Selikhov A. (G) 24. Filipenko E. (C) 16. Italo 2. Begic S. 14. Zheleznov Y. 22. Leo Cordeiro 37. Bondarev V. 13. Akbashev R. 44. Malkevich V. 42. Mosin E. 10. Sekulic M.	68. Gaydash M. (G) 2. Tarasov N. 3. Bugriev S. (C) 4. Supranovich N. 5. Zhilmostnykh D. 18. Ignatiev M. 78. Kiselev G. 7. Bokov D. 35. Enin I. 69. Chursin K. 99. Gharibyan A.
Substitutes
5. Ayupov T. 11. Karapuzov V. 59. Kharin E. 86. Kuznetsov I. (G) 46. Mamin A. 34. Margasov T. 20. Markov E. 17. Miguel G. 18. Morozov N. 31. Sergeev M. M. 6. Sungatulin F. 50. Voronov M.	23. Chikanchi M. 1. Eshchenko S. (G) 17. Kalachev I. 80. Khorin A. A. 11. Nazarenko E. 22. Nemchenko A. 85. Puchkov S. 8. Sadov D. 55. Saplinov A. 57. Tlekhugov M.
Coaches
Romashchenko M.	Bondar S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Sekulic M. 🟨,
41', Tarasov N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bokov D. ↓, Tlekhugov M. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Zheleznov Y. ⚽,
54', 1 - 1, Chursin K. ⚽,
60', Zhilmostnykh D. ↓, Saplinov A. ↑,
60', Enin I. ↓, Nemchenko A. ↑,
70', Chursin K. ↓, Sadov D. ↑,
75', Mosin E. ↓, Voronov M. ↑,
76', Gharibyan A. ↓, Chikanchi M. ↑,
79', Bondarev V. ↓, Sungatulin F. ↑,
90+1', Sekulic M. ↓, Markov E. ↑,
90+4', Supranovich N. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: )).

Ural is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Spartak Kostroma is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Ural is the team to beat.

We predict that Ural will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ural won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Ural
Russian FNL
15.11.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Ural	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Ural	0:2 ✺
05.11.25	Ural - Chelyabinsk	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Ural - Sokol Saratov	2:0 ✺
24.10.25	Arsenal Tula - Ural	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWWWW
- Spartak Kostroma
Russian FNL
17.11.25	Spartak Kostroma - Rodina Moscow	0:2 ✺
10.11.25	Fakel - Spartak Kostroma	3:2 ✺
02.11.25	Spartak Kostroma - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:1 ✺
25.10.25	Shinnik - Spartak Kostroma	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Spartak Kostroma	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
04.09.25	Spartak Kostroma - Ural	1:1

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