Match Info

FNL - Round 15

Date: 26 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Shinnik (Yaroslavl) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rubtsov E. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belarus	19:30	Sport TV


	Shinnik		Spartak Kostroma

	1	X	2
	3.30	3.15	2.55
	3.25	2.80	2.50
	3.34	2.83	2.54	Watch
	2.80	2.90	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.6)	2.92 ↓ (2.98)	2.5 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shinnik
29.8%

Draw
32.4%

Spartak Kostroma
37.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35%

30.5%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

30%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shinnik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shinnik's form might have worsened.

Spartak Kostroma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shinnik than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartak Kostroma than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Shinnik - Spartak Kostroma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
66. Yanovich N. (G) 24. Azyavin I. 27. Chernyi A. 23. Chistyakov N. 50. Golubev A. 10. Gongapshev A. 62. Karpov V. 53. Kotin N. 15. Samoylov D. (C) 54. Shmakov I. 17. Valiakhmetov E.	50. Shamov E. (G) 21. Bugarin M. 90. Kalmykov A. 18. Kamilov V. 17. Kaptilovich D. 10. Karaev D. 7. Malyarov K. 96. Mokhammad A. 87. Spahic A. 2. Tarasov N. (C) 5. Zhilmostnykh D.
Substitutes
77. Antonov A. 19. Arbuzov Y. 49. Karaev M. 7. Martovoy D. 88. Mironov D. 21. Pushkarev D. 95. Vambolt D. (G) 13. Yanov D.	3. Bugriev S. 70. Chervyakov R. 69. Chursin K. 68. Gaydash M. (G) 11. Gurtskaia D. 73. Kirakosyan D. 77. Meshcheryakov I. 6. Mohammadi N. 22. Nemchenko A. 82. Nikiforenko O. 66. Nikiforov M. 13. Rubtsov I.
Coaches
Boyarintsev D.	Ashikhmin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Kalmykov A. ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Samoylov D. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 1, Gongapshev A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mokhammad A. ↓, Mohammadi N. ↑,
46', Karaev D. ↓, Nemchenko A. ↑,
51', Spahic A. 🟨,
51', Azyavin I. 🟨,
52', Chistyakov N. 🟨,
52', Malyarov K. 🟨,
54', Samoylov D. 🟨,
68', 🟨,
68', Chistyakov N. 🟨,
68', Kamilov V. ↓, Bugriev S. ↑,
70', Samoylov D. ↓, Karaev M. ↑,
70', Bugarin M. 🟨,
72', Azyavin I. ↓, Mironov D. ↑,
78', Gongapshev A. ↓, Antonov A. ↑,
83', Bugarin M. 🟨,
84', 🟨,
84', Nemchenko A. ↓, Chursin K. ↑,
84', Malyarov K. ↓, Rubtsov I. ↑,
86', Spahic A. 🟥,
90+5', Tarasov N. 🟨,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 9th and 5th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Shinnik has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:3 (averaging 1.5:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Shinnik against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:2 goals (averaging 1.5:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	S. Kostroma	15	8	3	4	21:15	6	27
7	Shinnik Yaroslavl	15	5	8	2	20:15	5	23

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

S. Kostroma: 3.98% Shinnik Yaroslavl: 0.8%

Last Results with these Odds

Spartak Kostroma - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 34.47%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shinnik Yaroslavl
Russian FNL
18.10.26	Veles Moscow - Shinnik	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
14.10.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Shinnik	4:0 ✺
Russian FNL
10.10.26	Shinnik - Tekstilshchik Ivanovo	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Shinnik - SKA Khabarovsk	0:0 ✺
18.09.26	Shinnik - KAMAZ	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLWTL
- Spartak Kostroma
Russian FNL
17.10.26	Spartak Kostroma - Leningradets	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
13.10.26	Spartak Kostroma - Chelyabinsk	1:0 ✺
Russian FNL
09.10.26	Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	Spartak Kostroma - Ural	1:2 ✺
18.09.26	Volga Ulyanovsk - Spartak Kostroma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
22.03.26	Spartak Kostroma - Shinnik	1:1
25.10.25	Shinnik - Spartak Kostroma	2:2
Club Friendly
04.07.17	Spartak Kostroma - Shinnik	0:2
29.06.16	Shinnik - Spartak Kostroma	1:0

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