Match Info

J1 League - Round 17

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Saitama Stadium (Saitama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Urawa Red Diamonds		Tokyo

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.2	2.45	Watch
	2.78	3.1	2.48	Watch
	2.87	3.25	2.57
	2.87	3.12	2.57	Watch
	2.8	3	2.5
	2.82	3.15	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (2.87)	3.14 ↑ (3.12)	2.51 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Urawa Red Diamonds
33%

Draw
29.8%

Tokyo
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

30.3%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

31.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Urawa Red Diamonds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Urawa Red Diamonds than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	40%	30%

Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Urawa will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Tokyo will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nishikawa S. (G) 4. Ishihara H. 2. Miyamoto Y. 5. Nemoto K. 88. Naganuma Y. 39. Hayakawa J. 25. Yasui K. 77. Kaneko T. 13. Watanabe R. (C) 8. Matheus Savio 45. Onaiwu A.	81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 2. Muroya S. (C) 24. Scholz A. 17. Inamura H. 42. Hashimoto K. 16. Sato K. 18. Hashimoto K. 27. Tokiwa K. 22. Endo K. 9. Marcelo Ryan 23. Sato R.
Substitutes
7. Abe H. 3. Danilo Boza 11. Gustafson S. 9. Kiese I. 17. Komori H. 24. Matsuo Y. 16. Niekawa A. (G) 14. Sekine T. 22. Shibato K.	8. Ko T. 3. Morishige M. 5. Nagatomo Y. 39. Nakagawa T. 28. Nozawa L. 15. Omori R. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 33. Tawaratsumida K. 71. Yamada F.
Coaches
Tanaka T.	Matsuhashi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Onaiwu A. ↓, Komori H. ↑,
46', Matheus Savio ↓, Abe H. ↑,
62', Hayakawa J. ↓, Matsuo Y. ↑,
70', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,
70', Endo K. ↓, Tawaratsumida K. ↑,
79', Kaneko T. ↓, Sekine T. ↑,
84', Yasui K. ↓, Gustafson S. ↑,
88', Sato R. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
88', Tokiwa K. ↓, Ko T. ↑,
Penalties (9 - 10)
1, Matsuo Y. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Sato K. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Watanabe R. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Hashimoto K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Nemoto K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Yamada F. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Komori H. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Tawaratsumida K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Sekine T. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Muroya S. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Gustafson S. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Hashimoto K. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Ishihara H. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Ko T. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Abe H. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Inamura H. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Miyamoto Y. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Scholz A. (Penalty Awarded),
10, Naganuma Y. (Penalty Awarded),
10, Nakagawa T. (Penalty Awarded),
11, Nishikawa S. (Penalty Awarded),
11, Kim Seung-Gyu (Penalty Awarded),
12, Matsuo Y. (Penalty Awarded),
12, Sato K. (Penalty Awarded),
13, Watanabe R. (Penalty Awarded),
13, Hashimoto K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Urawa won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Recently, Tokyo has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Tawaratsumida K. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Urawa won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Urawa won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.4:1.1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

FC Tokyo: 9.9% Urawa Reds: 2.04%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7
17	Urawa Reds	4	1	0	3	8:13	-5	3

Last Results with these Odds

Urawa Red Diamonds - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.93%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Tokyo - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.78%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Urawa Red Diamonds
Japan J1 League
09.05.26	Mito HollyHock - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:4 ✺
06.05.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - JEF United Chiba	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWWWL
- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
10.05.26	Tokyo - Tokyo Verdy	2:1 ✺
06.05.26	Tokyo - JEF United Chiba	0:3 ✺
02.05.26	Tokyo - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	1:3 ✺
24.04.26	Tokyo - Mito HollyHock	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
14.02.26	Tokyo - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1 penalties
Japan Emperors Cup
27.08.25	Tokyo - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1
Japan J1 League
19.07.25	Tokyo - Urawa Red Diamonds	3:2
17.05.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo	3:2
21.09.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo	0:2
03.04.24	Tokyo - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1
08.07.23	Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo	0:0

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