Match Info

J1 League - Round 16

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan
World	Onefootball


	Tokyo		Tokyo Verdy

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.2	4.5	Watch
	1.85	3.2	4.35	Watch
	1.92	3.39	4.76
	1.88	3.38	4.47	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.4
	1.92	3.23	4.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.72)	3.25 ↓ (3.41)	4.5 ↓ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tokyo
50.2%

Draw
28.9%

Tokyo Verdy
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

27.5%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

26.6%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Tokyo Verdy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tokyo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Tokyo - Tokyo Verdy Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Tokyo will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tokyo Verdy will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 2. Muroya S. (C) 24. Scholz A. 3. Morishige M. 5. Nagatomo Y. 16. Sato K. 18. Hashimoto K. 27. Tokiwa K. 22. Endo K. 9. Marcelo Ryan 23. Sato R.	21. Nagasawa Y. (G) 15. Suzuki K. 4. Hayashi N. 5. Inoue R. 22. Uchida Y. 16. Hirakawa R. 10. Morita K. (C) 23. Fukazawa D. 7. Matsuhashi Y. 25. Kumatoriya I. 9. Someno I.
Substitutes
42. Hashimoto K. 17. Inamura H. 8. Ko T. 26. Nagakura M. 39. Nakagawa T. 28. Nozawa L. 15. Omori R. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 71. Yamada F.	40. Arai Y. 14. Fukuda Y. 1. Matheus (G) 6. Miyahara K. 24. Nakayama S. 8. Saito K. 27. Shirai R. 35. Tanabe S. 45. Teranuma S.
Coaches
Matsuhashi R.	Hiroshi J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', Hashimoto K. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Morita K. ⚽, Matsuhashi Y. (A),
41', 1 - 1, Muroya S. ⚽, Sato R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kumatoriya I. ↓, Arai Y. ↑,
56', Endo K. 🟨,
71', Matsuhashi Y. ↓, Fukuda Y. ↑,
77', Nagatomo Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
77', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Nagakura M. ↑,
79', Scholz A. 🟨,
86', Sato R. ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,
86', Morishige M. ↓, Inamura H. ↑,
90', Morita K. ↓, Saito K. ↑,
90+2', Endo K. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Nagakura M. ⚽, Sato K. (A),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 1.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Tokyo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tokyo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Tokyo: Bangnagande K. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Tokyo Verdy: Yamami H. (Knee Injury) Yoshida T. (Knee Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tokyo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

FC Tokyo: 11.22% Verdy: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7
19	Verdy	4	0	2	2	2:6	-4	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
06.05.26	Tokyo - JEF United Chiba	0:3 ✺
02.05.26	Tokyo - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	1:3 ✺
24.04.26	Tokyo - Mito HollyHock	5:2 ✺
11.04.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWWWW
- Tokyo Verdy
Japan J1 League
06.05.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo Verdy	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Tokyo Verdy - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0 ✺
29.04.26	Tokyo Verdy - Kashima Antlers	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Tokyo Verdy - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo Verdy	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.6 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
22.03.26	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	1:0 penalties
15.09.25	Tokyo - Tokyo Verdy	1:0
02.04.25	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	2:2
17.08.24	Tokyo - Tokyo Verdy	0:0
13.04.24	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	2:2
Japan Emperors Cup
12.07.23	Tokyo - Tokyo Verdy	2:1 penalties

Upcoming Matches