Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 12

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Albania	12:15	SuperSport 2
Argentina	08:15	Disney+
Belgium	12:15	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Brazil	08:15	Disney+
Bulgaria	13:15	Ring, Voyo
Canada	06:15	Amazon Prime Video, Sportsnet World, Sportsnet World Now
Chile	08:15	Disney+
Colombia	06:15	Disney+
Croatia	12:15	SportKlub 5
Cyprus	13:15	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
France	12:15	DAZN France
Georgia	15:15	Silk Sport 2
Germany	12:15	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	13:15	Nova Sports Prime
Hong Kong	19:15	myTV SUPER
Israel	13:15	Sport 4
Italy	12:15	Como TV
Japan	20:15	U-NEXT
Kenya	14:15	Gotv
Mexico	05:15	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	12:15	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra
Nigeria	12:15	SupeSport ESPN 1
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	12:15	MaxTV GO
Peru	06:15	Disney+
Poland	12:15	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	11:15	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	13:15	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	14:15	TV Start
Serbia	12:15	Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	12:15	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	12:15	Sport TV1
South Africa	13:15	SupeSport ESPN
Spain	12:15	GolStadium
Switzerland	12:15	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	14:15	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
United Kingdom	11:15	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	08:15	Disney+
Usa	06:15	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	07:15	Disney+
International	11:15	Triller TV+


	Utrecht		Ajax

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.6	2.38	Watch
	2.8	3.55	2.42
	2.86	3.56	2.48
	2.99	3.91	2.13	Watch
	3.02	3.69	2.34	Watch
	2.7	3.7	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (2.99)	3.67 ↓ (3.91)	2.34 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utrecht
33.3%

Draw
26%

Ajax
40.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.6%

24.1%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

24.7%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utrecht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	57.1%	33.3%

Utrecht - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Utrecht will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Ajax will win (votes: 7 - 35%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 55%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barkas V. (G) 2. Horemans S. 40. Didden M. 24. Viergever N. (C) 16. El Karouani S. 27. Engwanda A. 20. de Wit D. 21. Zechiel G. 22. Rodriguez M. 91. Haller S. 15. Blake A.	22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 41. Alders G. 6. Regeer Y. 8. Taylor K. (C) 17. Edvardsen O. 10. Gloukh O. 11. Godts M. 25. Weghorst W.
Substitutes
8. Bozdogan C. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 10. Cathline Y. 17. Demircan E. 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 5. Finnsson K. 33. Gadellaa K. (G) 14. Iqbal Z. 26. Jonathans M. 9. Min D. 55. Murkin D. 6. van den Berg D.	43. Bounida R. 9. Dolberg K. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 3. Gaaei A. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 4. Itakura K. 1. Jaros V. (G) 18. Klaassen D. 16. McConnell J. 24. Mokio J. 7. Moro R. 48. Steur S.
Coaches
Jans R.	Grim F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', 1 - 0, Didden M. ⚽, El Karouani S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 0, Haller S. ⚽, El Karouani S. (A),
56', 2 - 1, Godts M. ⚽, Regeer Y. (A),
67', Blake A. ↓, Cathline Y. ↑,
67', Haller S. ↓, Min D. ↑,
67', Rosa L. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
67', Gloukh O. ↓, Klaassen D. ↑,
85', Horemans S. 🟨,
85', de Wit D. ↓, Bozdogan C. ↑,
87', Edvardsen O. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
88', Taylor K. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
88', Godts M. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
88', Rodriguez M. ↓, Eerdhuijzen M. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 2.

Recent performances by Utrecht have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ajax is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ajax may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Utrecht: Jensen V. (Muscle Injury) Vesterlund N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) Dolberg K. (Abdominal strain) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:42. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Utrecht won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Utrecht
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Utrecht - Porto	1:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
02.11.25	Utrecht - NEC Nijmegen	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Utrecht	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Freiburg - Utrecht	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	Utrecht - Volendam	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWLLW
- Ajax Amsterdam
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Ajax - Galatasaray	0:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
01.11.25	Ajax - Heerenveen	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Twente - Ajax	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Chelsea - Ajax	5:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
20.04.25	Utrecht - Ajax	4:0
04.12.24	Ajax - Utrecht	2:2
03.03.24	Ajax - Utrecht	2:0
22.10.23	Utrecht - Ajax	4:3
21.05.23	Ajax - Utrecht	3:1
28.08.22	Utrecht - Ajax	0:2
16.01.22	Utrecht - Ajax	0:3

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