Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 12

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
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Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Spain	GolStadium
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
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Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	Utrecht		Ajax

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.6	2.38	Watch
	2.8	3.55	2.42
	2.86	3.56	2.48
	2.99	3.91	2.13	Watch
	3.02	3.69	2.34	Watch
	2.7	3.7	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (2.99)	3.67 ↓ (3.91)	2.34 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utrecht
33.3%

Draw
26%

Ajax
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

24.1%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

24.7%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utrecht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	57.1%	33.3%

Utrecht - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Utrecht will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Ajax will win (votes: 7 - 35%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 55%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barkas V. (G) 2. Horemans S. 40. Didden M. 24. Viergever N. (C) 16. El Karouani S. 27. Engwanda A. 20. de Wit D. 21. Zechiel G. 22. Rodriguez M. 91. Haller S. 15. Blake A.	22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 41. Alders G. 6. Regeer Y. 8. Taylor K. (C) 17. Edvardsen O. 10. Gloukh O. 11. Godts M. 25. Weghorst W.
Substitutes
8. Bozdogan C. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 10. Cathline Y. 17. Demircan E. 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 5. Finnsson K. 33. Gadellaa K. (G) 14. Iqbal Z. 26. Jonathans M. 9. Min D. 55. Murkin D. 6. van den Berg D.	43. Bounida R. 9. Dolberg K. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 3. Gaaei A. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 4. Itakura K. 1. Jaros V. (G) 18. Klaassen D. 16. McConnell J. 24. Mokio J. 7. Moro R. 48. Steur S.
Coaches
Jans R.	Grim F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', 1 - 0, Didden M. ⚽, El Karouani S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 0, Haller S. ⚽, El Karouani S. (A),
56', 2 - 1, Godts M. ⚽, Regeer Y. (A),
67', Blake A. ↓, Cathline Y. ↑,
67', Haller S. ↓, Min D. ↑,
67', Rosa L. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
67', Gloukh O. ↓, Klaassen D. ↑,
85', Horemans S. 🟨,
85', de Wit D. ↓, Bozdogan C. ↑,
87', Edvardsen O. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
88', Taylor K. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
88', Godts M. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
88', Rodriguez M. ↓, Eerdhuijzen M. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 2.

Recent performances by Utrecht have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ajax is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ajax may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Utrecht: Jensen V. (Muscle Injury) Vesterlund N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) Dolberg K. (Abdominal strain) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:42. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Utrecht won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Utrecht
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Utrecht - Porto	1:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
02.11.25	Utrecht - NEC Nijmegen	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Utrecht	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Freiburg - Utrecht	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	Utrecht - Volendam	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWLLW
- Ajax Amsterdam
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Ajax - Galatasaray	0:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
01.11.25	Ajax - Heerenveen	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Twente - Ajax	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Chelsea - Ajax	5:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
20.04.25	Utrecht - Ajax	4:0
04.12.24	Ajax - Utrecht	2:2
03.03.24	Ajax - Utrecht	2:0
22.10.23	Utrecht - Ajax	4:3
21.05.23	Ajax - Utrecht	3:1
28.08.22	Utrecht - Ajax	0:2
16.01.22	Utrecht - Ajax	0:3

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