Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Vélez Sársfield		River Plate

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.7	Watch
	2.85	2.85	2.78	Watch
	2.92	2.97	2.74
	2.88	2.88	2.79
	2.75	2.8	2.63
	2.82	2.82	2.75	Watch
	2.85	2.85	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.72)	2.88 ↓ (2.93)	2.73 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
33.1%

Draw
32.6%

River Plate
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

31.8%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

33.1%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

River Plate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	50%	20%

Vélez Sársfield - River Plate Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 3 - 30%). River Plate will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Vélez (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Vélez (2.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - River Plate (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Vélez (votes: 2 - 33.3%). River Plate (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Montero A. (G) 4. Garcia J. 2. Mammana E. 16. Magallan L. 3. Gomez E. 5. Baeza C. 8. Robertone L. 50. Andrada T. 22. Lanzini M. 11. Pellegrini M. 23. Monzon F.	1. Armani F. (C) 29. Montiel G. 28. Martinez Quarta L. 17. Diaz P. 18. Vina M. 6. Moreno A. 26. Galvan T. 15. Fausto Vera 10. Quintero J. 11. Colidio F. 9. Driussi S.
Substitutes
29. Aliendro R. 35. Arias M. 49. Dominguez D. 15. Godoy D. 7. Machuca I. 1. Marchiori T. (G) 6. Quiros A. 9. Romero B. 32. Silvero T. 17. Veron A.	41. Beltran S. (G) 22. Castano K. 44. Freitas J. 36. Gimenez U. 34. Giuliano Galoppo 31. Gonzalez F. 39. Lencina S. 19. Paez K. 13. Rivero L. 32. Ruberto A. 7. Salas M. 38. Subiabre I.
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Gallardo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Lanzini M. ⚽, Pellegrini M. (A),
18', Diaz P. 🟨,
27', Quintero J. ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
34', Pellegrini M. ↓, Veron A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Galvan T. ↓, Paez K. ↑,
46', Armani F. ↓, Beltran S. ↑,
52', Vina M. 🟨,
64', Monzon F. 🟨,
64', Monzon F. ↓, Romero B. ↑,
65', Robertone L. ↓, Aliendro R. ↑,
66', Fausto Vera ↓, Giuliano Galoppo ↑,
70', Paez K. ↓, Subiabre I. ↑,
77', Lanzini M. ↓, Machuca I. ↑,
87', Montiel G. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 1.

Vélez is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, River Plate has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

River Plate may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Vélez: Gordon J. (Inactive) Romero B. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in River Plate: Armani F. (Heel Injury) Costantini G. (Knee Injury) Driussi S. (Muscle Injury) Meza M. (Foot Injury) Pezzella G. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vélez: Valdes D. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Vélez won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.22%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.02.26	Defensa y Justicia - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Vélez Sársfield - Talleres de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
22.01.26	Instituto Córdoba - Vélez Sársfield	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TWTWW
- River Plate
Copa Argentina
17.02.26	River Plate - Ciudad de Bolívar	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.02.26	Argentinos Juniors - River Plate	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	River Plate - Tigre	1:4 ✺
01.02.26	Rosario Central - River Plate	0:0 ✺
28.01.26	River Plate - Gimnasia La Plata	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.11.25	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	0:0
04.05.25	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	4:1
18.10.24	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
04.02.24	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	5:0
02.09.23	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	2:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.05.23	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	2:2
17.07.22	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	2:2

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