Match Info

J2 League - Round 15

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Montedio Yamagata

	1	X	2
	1.73	4.2	3.9	Watch
	1.7	3.7	3.9
	1.78	3.85	3.85	Watch
	1.79	4.09	4.26
	1.84	3.85	3.82	Watch
	1.73	3.6	4
	1.76	3.8	3.98	Watch
	1.78	3.85	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.81)	3.87 ↑ (3.7)	3.95 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
52.5%

Draw
24%

Montedio Yamagata
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

24.5%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

23.8%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

V Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Goto M. (G) 23. Yoneda S. 29. Arai I. 25. Kushibiki K. 17. Takahata K. 6. Abe T. 5. Yamaguchi H. 10. Matheus Jesus 7. Marcos Guilherme 9. Juanma Delgado 8. Masuyama A.	1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 3. Kumamoto Y. 4. Nishimura K. 22. Shirowa H. 20. Yoshio Kaina 7. Takae L. 8. Konishi Y. 14. Sakamoto K. 25. Kokubu S. 90. Disaro A. S. 11. Fujimoto Y.
Substitutes
36. Aoki S. 31. Harada G. (G) 34. Matsumoto T. 38. Matsuzawa K. 14. Nagura T. 19. Sawada T. 3. Sekiguchi M. 48. Teruyama H. 18. Yamasaki R.	5. Abe T. 88. Doi S. 55. Horikane S. 42. Issaka Z. 71. Nakamura R. 9. Takahashi J. 31. Terakado R. (G) 6. Yamada T. 2. Yoshida T.
Coaches
Shimotaira T.	Watanabe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Disaro A. S. ⚽, Sakamoto K. (A),
21', Konishi Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Yoshio Kaina ↓, Issaka Z. ↑,
53', Juanma Delgado 🟥,
54', Nishimura K. 🟨,
65', Marcos Guilherme ↓, Matsuzawa K. ↑,
65', Abe T. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
70', Disaro A. S. ↓, Takahashi J. ↑,
70', Fujimoto Y. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
79', Masuyama A. ↓, Aoki S. ↑,
85', Sakamoto K. ↓, Yoshida T. ↑,
89', Matheus Jesus ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
89', Takahata K. ↓, Sekiguchi M. ↑,
90+1', Kokubu S. ↓, Yamada T. ↑,
90+9', 1 - 1, Yamasaki R. (Pen),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2.

V-Varen Nagasaki has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Montedio Yamagata is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

V-Varen Nagasaki will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:25. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:7. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
06.05.25	Kataller Toyama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Ehime	1:1 ✺
29.04.25	Consadole Sapporo - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:2 ✺
25.04.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Iwaki	3:4 ✺
19.04.25	Ventforet Kofu - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WTTLT
- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
06.05.25	Montedio Yamagata - Oita Trinita	3:0 ✺
03.05.25	Montedio Yamagata - Consadole Sapporo	0:1 ✺
29.04.25	Kataller Toyama - Montedio Yamagata	0:0 ✺
25.04.25	Sagan Tosu - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Montedio Yamagata - Ehime	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
17.08.24	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	4:2
03.04.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	2:0
22.07.23	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	5:1
25.03.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	3:2
06.07.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	1:1
01.05.22	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0
14.09.21	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	5:1

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