Match Info

JAPAN: YBC Levain Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki (Nagasaki)


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Urawa Red Diamonds

	1	X	2
	4.5	4	1.57	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.53
	5	4.2	1.57	Watch
	5.63	4.18	1.64
	5.63	4.19	1.6
	5.8	4	1.44
	5.2	4.1	1.59	Watch
	4.9	4.1	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.18 ↑ (4.07)	4.07 ↑ (3.53)	1.57 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
17.9%

Draw
22.8%

Urawa Red Diamonds
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

25.8%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

28.9%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Urawa Red Diamonds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Urawa Red Diamonds's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Urawa Red Diamonds than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

V Varen Nagasaki - Urawa Red Diamonds Predictions

Users Predictions: Urawa Red Diamonds will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Wakahara T. (G) 27. Moyo M. 29. Arai I. 40. Shirai H. 34. Satsukida S. 37. Sehata G. 24. Yamada R. 14. Nagura T. 19. Sawada T. 9. Juanma Delgado 38. Matsuzawa K.	16. Niekawa A. (G) 2. Sakai H. 28. Scholz A. 5. Hoibraaten M. 66. Ohata A. 25. Yasui K. 3. Ito A. 13. Watanabe R. 38. Maeda N. 30. Koroki S. 27. Panya E.
Substitutes
11. Junio E. 33. Kasayanagi T. 13. Kato M. 7. Marcos Guilherme 8. Masuyama A. 6. Matheus Jesus 15. Naruse S. 1. Tomizawa M. (G) 4. Valdo	29. Horiuchi Y. 23. Inoue R. 6. Iwao K. 20. Sato Y. 17. Solbakken O. 47. Takeda H. 12. Thiago Santana 35. Ugajin T. 31. Yoshida S. (G)
Coaches
Shimotaira T.	Hogmo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hoibraaten M. ↓, Sato Y. ↑,
46', Koroki S. ↓, Thiago Santana ↑,
48', Juanma Delgado 🟨,
56', Matsuzawa K. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
56', Nagura T. ↓, Matheus Jesus ↑,
59', Yamada R. 🟨,
61', Yamada R. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
61', Sawada T. ↓, Marcos Guilherme ↑,
66', Watanabe R. ↓, Solbakken O. ↑,
66', Ito A. ↓, Iwao K. ↑,
70', Solbakken O. 🟨,
70', Moyo M. 🟥,
73', Sehata G. ↓, Masuyama A. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Juanma Delgado ⚽,
85', Maeda N. ↓, Takeda H. ↑,

Preview

Now both teams are in good shape.

V-Varen Nagasaki could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Urawa is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches V-Varen Nagasaki won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Including matches at home between the teams V-Varen Nagasaki won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
18.05.24	Kagoshima United - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:3 ✺
12.05.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama	0:0 ✺
06.05.24	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0 ✺
03.05.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Blaublitz Akita	2:2 ✺
27.04.24	Thespakusatsu Gunma - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTTTW
- Urawa Red Diamonds
Japan J1 League
19.05.24	Júbilo Iwata - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:1 ✺
15.05.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kyoto Sanga	3:0 ✺
11.05.24	Albirex Niigata - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:4 ✺
06.05.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:1 ✺
03.05.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Urawa Red Diamonds	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
05.08.18	Urawa Red Diamonds - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0
10.03.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:1

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