Match Info

JAPAN: J2 League - Round 16

Date: 18 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Shiranami Stadium (Kagoshima)

Referee: Yoshida T. (Jpn)


	Kagoshima United		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.75	1.91	Watch
	3.4	3.5	1.87
	3.5	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.75	3.83	1.98
	3.75	3.83	1.95
	3.4	3.6	1.85
	3.56	3.65	1.91	Watch
	3.5	3.7	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (3.39)	3.68 ↑ (3.45)	1.92 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kagoshima United
26.2%

Draw
25.2%

V-Varen Nagasaki
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

27.1%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

26.5%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	18.2%	72.7%

Kagoshima United - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Kagoshima United will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for V-Varen Nagasaki: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Izumori R. (G) 17. Hoshi K. 5. Ibayashi A. 23. Okamoto S. 3. Toyama R. 8. Fujimura K. 35. Nakahara S. 11. Goryo J. 34. Suzuki S. 18. Fukuda M. 10. Fujimoto N.	31. Harada G. (G) 8. Masuyama A. 25. Kushibiki K. 5. Tanaka H. 23. Yoneda S. 17. Akino H. (C) 13. Kato M. 6. Matheus Jesus 7. Marcos Guilherme 11. Junio E. 33. Kasayanagi T.
Substitutes
9. Arita K. 20. Endo M. 92. Nduka C. 14. Nodake H. 31. Ono C. (G) 21. Tanaka W. 28. Tone I.	29. Arai I. 9. Juanma Delgado 38. Matsuzawa K. 27. Moyo M. 14. Nagura T. 21. Wakahara T. (G) 24. Yamada R.
Coaches
Oshima Y.	Shimotaira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Marcos Guilherme ⚽, Matheus Jesus (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', 0 - 2, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Yoneda S. (A),
58', Kasayanagi T. ↓, Matsuzawa K. ↑,
58', Marcos Guilherme ↓, Moyo M. ↑,
61', Fujimura K. 🟨,
63', Goryo J. ↓, Nduka C. ↑,
63', Nakahara S. ↓, Tanaka W. ↑,
67', Fukuda M. ↓, Endo M. ↑,
70', Junio E. ↓, Juanma Delgado ↑,
70', Kato M. ↓, Yamada R. ↑,
74', Hoshi K. ↓, Nodake H. ↑,
74', Fujimoto N. ↓, Arita K. ↑,
84', Matheus Jesus ↓, Nagura T. ↑,
85', 0 - 3, Matsuzawa K. ⚽, Masuyama A. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League).

Kagoshima United is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

V-Varen Nagasaki is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

V-Varen Nagasaki will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Kagoshima United won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Kagoshima United won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kagoshima United
Japan J2 League
11.05.24	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kagoshima United	4:0 ✺
06.05.24	Kagoshima United - Vegalta Sendai	0:1 ✺
03.05.24	Roasso Kumamoto - Kagoshima United	2:2 ✺
28.04.24	Kagoshima United - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:1 ✺
21.04.24	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTLW
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
12.05.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama	0:0 ✺
06.05.24	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0 ✺
03.05.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Blaublitz Akita	2:2 ✺
27.04.24	Thespakusatsu Gunma - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
21.04.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Yokohama FC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
01.06.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kagoshima United	1:0
Japan J2 League
27.07.19	Kagoshima United - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2
27.04.19	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kagoshima United	0:0

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