Match Info

J2 League - Round 16

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Resonac Dome Oita (Oita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Oita Trinita		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.63	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.4
	3	3.2	2.29	Watch
	3.21	3.3	2.44
	3.08	3.18	2.35	Watch
	2.9	3	2.38
	3.08	3.13	2.28	Watch
	3	3.2	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↓ (3.36)	3.11 ↓ (3.33)	2.38 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oita Trinita
31.2%

Draw
29.8%

V-Varen Nagasaki
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

28.5%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

29.4%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oita Trinita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that V-Varen Nagasaki could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Oita Trinita - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Oita Trinita will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Hamada T. (G) 18. Nodake J. 31. Matheus Pereira 3. Derlan 44. Yoshida M. 25. Sakakibara K. 38. Amagasa T. 29. Utsumoto S. 9. Arima K. 10. Nomura N. 13. Isa K.	21. Goto M. (G) 29. Arai I. 48. Teruyama H. 25. Kushibiki K. 34. Matsumoto T. 6. Abe T. 10. Matheus Jesus 5. Yamaguchi H. 7. Marcos Guilherme 18. Yamasaki R. 8. Masuyama A.
Substitutes
34. Fujiwara Y. 14. Ikeda R. 41. Kim Hyun-woo 20. Kimoto T. 5. Nakagawa H. 24. Sato S. (G) 4. Satsukawa A. 16. Shige T. 15. Yashiki Y.	31. Harada G. (G) 2. Iio R. 32. Joppu S. 33. Kasayanagi T. 13. Kato M. 38. Matsuzawa K. 14. Nagura T. 19. Sawada T. 3. Sekiguchi M.
Coaches
Katanosaka T.	Shimotaira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Yoshida M. ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
19', Yoshida M. ↓, Shige T. ↑,
21', 1 - 1, Masuyama A. ⚽, Marcos Guilherme (A),
25', Utsumoto S. 🟨,
40', Sakakibara K. 🟨,
45+3', Yamasaki R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', 1 - 2, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Masuyama A. (A),
63', Utsumoto S. ↓, Satsukawa A. ↑,
63', Nodake J. ↓, Fujiwara Y. ↑,
76', Marcos Guilherme ↓, Matsuzawa K. ↑,
77', Masuyama A. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
82', Sakakibara K. ↓, Kim Hyun-woo ↑,
82', Isa K. ↓, Kimoto T. ↑,
84', Matsumoto T. ↓, Iio R. ↑,
85', Abe T. 🟨,
87', Matheus Jesus 🟨,
90+1', Abe T. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
90+1', Matheus Jesus ↓, Joppu S. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oita Trinita won 1.

Oita Trinita is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, V-Varen Nagasaki has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Oita Trinita won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Oita Trinita won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.6:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

V-Varen Nagasaki - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 43.3%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
11.05.25	Kataller Toyama - Oita Trinita	1:1 ✺
06.05.25	Montedio Yamagata - Oita Trinita	3:0 ✺
03.05.25	Oita Trinita - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0 ✺
29.04.25	Oita Trinita - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
25.04.25	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TLWWW
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
11.05.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	1:1 ✺
06.05.25	Kataller Toyama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Ehime	1:1 ✺
29.04.25	Consadole Sapporo - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:2 ✺
25.04.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Iwaki	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
06.10.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita	4:1
06.05.24	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0
03.09.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita	2:2
21.05.23	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1
01.10.22	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:1
12.03.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita	4:1
16.09.17	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2

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