Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Championship Group - Round 27

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday

Location: Lemonsoft Stadion (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	OneFootball TV


	VPS Vaasa		Gnistan

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	2.80
	2.40	3.40	2.70
	2.40	3.30	2.63	Watch
	2.52	3.55	2.86
	2.54	3.59	2.63	Watch
	2.40	3.50	2.85
	2.40	3.23	2.92	Watch
	2.31	3.30	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (1.92)	3.37 ↓ (3.55)	2.77 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VPS Vaasa
38.7%

Draw
27.6%

Gnistan
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

25.7%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

25.3%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VPS Vaasa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that VPS Vaasa's form might have worsened.

Gnistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gnistan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for VPS Vaasa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gnistan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

VPS Vaasa - Gnistan Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. VPS will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Jalloh M. (G) 23. Niemi M. (C) 6. Okereke E. 7. Turfkruier J. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 2. Mane L. 8. Lima P. 34. Raisanen A. 20. Odhiambo X. 9. Holmelund C. 30. Vahtera J.	1. Virtanen O. (G) 19. Milovanov B. 24. Gnanou R. 67. Obileye A. (C) 3. Ruxi 12. Arko-Mensah E. 7. Atarah A. 31. Jouhi A. 15. Europaeus G. 26. Eremenko R. 11. Perez D.
Substitutes
24. Daoussi Y. 14. Lindholm S. 11. Muzinga J. 26. Ogunniyi O. 1. Piispa A. (G) 25. Salomaa H. 29. Samake W. 3. Simpson R. 17. Terrnava D.	2. Dahlstrom B. 14. Eremenko S. 27. Hannula O. 95. Juricka M. (G) 10. Latonen J. 40. Ojala J. 25. Rossi N. 23. Ylatupa S.
Coaches
Nuorela J.	Leppalahti J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Odhiambo X. ⚽, Holmelund C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Atarah A. ↓, Latonen J. ↑,
61', Perez D. ↓, Eremenko S. ↑,
61', Jouhi A. ↓, Ylatupa S. ↑,
64', Odhiambo X. ↓, Salomaa H. ↑,
64', Holmelund C. ↓, Muzinga J. ↑,
75', Vahtera J. ↓, Lindholm S. ↑,
75', Turfkruier J. ↓, Daoussi Y. ↑,
76', Arko-Mensah E. ↓, Hannula O. ↑,
85', Obileye A. ↓, Rossi N. ↑,
87', Raisanen A. ↓, Simpson R. ↑,
87', Rossi N. 🟨,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 4th in the Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )).

Gnistan is Qualified for Veikkausliiga (Championship Group ).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, VPS won 0.

Recent results have been tough for VPS (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Gnistan has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Recently, Gnistan has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for VPS: Ronnberg V. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Gnistan: Bashkirov E. (Knee Injury) Marcelo Costa (Inactive).

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, VPS has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:18 (averaging 1.5:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for VPS against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 9:9 goals (averaging 1.5:1.5 per game).

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

Gnistan: 1.78% VPS: 0.32%

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gnistan	27	11	9	7	40:33	7	42
5	VPS	27	11	6	10	31:31	0	39

Last Results with these Odds

Gnistan - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 26.77%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
08.10.26	HJK - VPS Vaasa	6:0 ✺
19.09.26	VPS Vaasa - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	Inter Turku - VPS Vaasa	1:0 ✺
08.09.26	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	VPS Vaasa - Lahti	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLWL
- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
07.10.26	Gnistan - Inter Turku	0:0 ✺
18.09.26	Gnistan - HJK	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Oulu - Gnistan	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Gnistan - KuPS Kuopio	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Gnistan - TPS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	1:1
09.05.26	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	1:1
15.08.25	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	0:0
18.06.25	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	0:0
23.10.24	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	0:1
04.08.24	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	3:0
20.04.24	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	3:2

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