Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 15

Date: 30 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio José Zorrilla (Valladolid)

Referee: Cuadra G. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Valladolid		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	7	4.5	1.44	Watch
	7.25	4.33	1.46
	8	4.5	1.45	Watch
	8.3	4.52	1.46
	8.14	4.51	1.45
	8	4.2	1.44
	8	4.63	1.48	Watch
	8	4.5	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.84 ↑ (5.61)	4.46 ↑ (3.83)	1.45 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Valladolid
12.3%

Draw
21.6%

Atlético Madrid
66.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.1%

25%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.2%

23.7%

61%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valladolid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Madrid's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valladolid than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Madrid, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3%	21.2%	75.8%

Valladolid - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 65 users predict this event. Valladolid will win (votes: 2 - 3.1%). Atlético will win (votes: 49 - 75.4%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 21.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 64.9% – 85.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Hein K. (G) 2. Perez L. 35. Juma Bah A. 5. Sanchez J. (C) 15. Comert E. 22. Rosa L. 11. Moro R. 21. Amallah S. 8. Perez K. 10. Sanchez I. 7. Sylla M.	13. Oblak J. (C) 14. Llorente M. 2. Gimenez J. M. 15. Lenglet C. 21. Galan J. 22. Simeone G. 5. de Paul R. 8. Barrios P. 4. Gallagher C. 7. Griezmann A. 19. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
23. Anuar 16. de la Hoz C. 1. Ferreira A. (G) 20. Juric S. 14. Latasa J. 18. Machis D. 9. Marcos Andre 12. Martin M. 4. Meseguer Cavas V. A. 19. Ndiaye A. 6. Ozkacar C. 3. Torres D.	3. Azpilicueta C. 10. Correa A. 31. Gomis A. (G) 6. Koke 12. Lino S. 23. Mandava R. 1. Musso J. (G) 17. Riquelme R. 9. Sorloth A. 20. Witsel A.
Coaches
Pezzolano P.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', Amallah S. ↓, Juric S. ↑,
26', 0 - 1, Lenglet C. ⚽, Llorente M. (A),
32', Perez K. 🟨,
35', 0 - 2, Alvarez J. ⚽,
37', 0 - 3, de Paul R. ⚽, Galan J. (A),
41', Galan J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Sanchez J. ↓, Anuar ↑,
46', Galan J. ↓, Mandava R. ↑,
46', Moro R. ↓, Meseguer Cavas V. A. ↑,
52', 0 - 4, Griezmann A. ⚽, Alvarez J. (A),
62', Sylla M. ↓, Latasa J. ↑,
64', Griezmann A. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
64', de Paul R. ↓, Koke ↑,
64', Alvarez J. ↓, Correa A. ↑,
75', Simeone G. 🟨,
79', Barrios P. ↓, Lino S. ↑,
85', Perez K. ↓, Martin M. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 5, Sorloth A. ⚽, Correa A. (A),

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Valladolid won 0.

Recent matches Valladolid is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Valladolid could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Atlético is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Atlético: Lemar T. (Muscle Injury) Molina N. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético: Le Normand R. (Head Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Valladolid won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 6:27 (average 0.5:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Valladolid won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 5:15 (average 0.8:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Valladolid
Spanish LaLiga
22.11.24	Getafe - Valladolid	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.11.24	Valladolid - AVS	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
10.11.24	Valladolid - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
02.11.24	Osasuna - Valladolid	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.24	Astur - Valladolid	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWTLW
- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
26.11.24	Sparta Prague - Atlético Madrid	0:6 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
23.11.24	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	2:1 ✺
10.11.24	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
06.11.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.11.24	Atlético Madrid - Las Palmas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
30.04.23	Valladolid - Atlético Madrid	2:5
21.01.23	Atlético Madrid - Valladolid	3:0
22.05.21	Valladolid - Atlético Madrid	1:2
05.12.20	Atlético Madrid - Valladolid	2:0
20.06.20	Atlético Madrid - Valladolid	1:0
06.10.19	Valladolid - Atlético Madrid	0:0
27.04.19	Atlético Madrid - Valladolid	1:0

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