Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 26 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: epet ARENA (Prague)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus ROA, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	Fox Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, Space, Space, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 3
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Two
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 253
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	Cinemax, HBO Max, MAX
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
North-central-america	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 10, Blue Sport 10, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Tajikistan	Varzish Sport
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 4
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app


	Sparta Prague		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.65
	5.5	3.9	1.62
	5.55	4	1.65
	5.66	4.05	1.68
	5.63	3.89	1.67
	5.5	3.9	1.65
	5.53	3.98	1.7
	5.55	4	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.55 ↓ (5.56)	3.95 ↓ (4.1)	1.66 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sparta Prague
17.4%

Draw
24.4%

Atlético Madrid
58.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

23.4%

59.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.9%

22.9%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sparta Prague has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Prague than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.6%	12.2%	82.2%

Sparta Prague - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (72 of 84 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.23% – 93.19%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vindahl P. (G) 41. Vitik M. 27. Panak F. (C) 5. Ross M. 28. Wiesner T. 20. Laci Q. 6. Kairinen K. 32. Rynes M. 29. Krasniqi E. 10. Rrahmani A. 22. Haraslin L.	13. Oblak J. (C) 22. Simeone G. 2. Gimenez J. M. 15. Lenglet C. 21. Galan J. 14. Llorente M. 5. de Paul R. 4. Gallagher C. 8. Barrios P. 9. Sorloth A. 19. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
13. Danek K. 7. Olatunji V. 8. Pavelka D. 54. Penxa L. 21. Pesek J. 18. Sadilek L. 4. Solbakken M. 2. Suchomel M. 44. Surovcik J. (G) 11. Tuci I. 61. Vecerka D. 24. Vorel V. (G)	3. Azpilicueta C. 10. Correa A. 31. Gomis A. (G) 7. Griezmann A. 6. Koke 12. Lino S. 23. Mandava R. 1. Musso J. (G) 17. Riquelme R. 20. Witsel A.
Coaches
Friis L.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Alvarez J. ⚽,
27', Haraslin L. ↓, Pesek J. ↑,
43', 0 - 2, Llorente M. ⚽, Gallagher C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 4)
58', Sorloth A. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
59', 0 - 3, Alvarez J. ⚽, Simeone G. (A),
60', Rrahmani A. ↓, Olatunji V. ↑,
61', Krasniqi E. ↓, Tuci I. ↑,
65', Pesek J. 🟨,
67', Barrios P. 🟨,
70', 0 - 4, Griezmann A. ⚽, Llorente M. (A),
78', Barrios P. ↓, Koke ↑,
78', de Paul R. ↓, Lino S. ↑,
79', Alvarez J. ↓, Correa A. ↑,
79', Simeone G. ↓, Riquelme R. ↑,
79', Laci Q. ↓, Solbakken M. ↑,
79', Pesek J. ↓, Pavelka D. ↑,
85', 0 - 5, Correa A. ⚽, Lino S. (A),
89', 0 - 6, Correa A. ⚽,

Preview

Recent matches Sparta Prague is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Atlético is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recently Sparta Prague have a series of home games.

In this match Atlético is a favorite.

There will not play in Sparta Prague: Birmancevic V. (Groin Injury) Cobbaut E. (Hamstring Injury) Garcia I. (Knee Injury) Preciado A. (Knee Injury) Sorensen A. (Hamstring Injury) Zeleny J. (Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Lemar T. (Injury) Molina N. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético: Le Normand R. (Head Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Sparta Prague
Czech 1 Liga
23.11.24	Sparta Prague - Teplice	1:1 ✺
10.11.24	Mladá Boleslav - Sparta Prague	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
06.11.24	Sparta Prague - Brest	1:2 ✺
Czech 1 Liga
02.11.24	Sparta Prague - Baník Ostrava	1:3 ✺
Czech Cup
30.10.24	Sparta Prague - Zbrojovka Brno	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TTLLW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
23.11.24	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	2:1 ✺
10.11.24	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
06.11.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.11.24	Atlético Madrid - Las Palmas	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
31.10.24	Vic - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWWWW

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