Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 13

Date: 12 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	2.9
	2.96	3.04	2.5
	2.42	3.19	2.96
	2.26	3.18	3.08
	2.37	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.52)	3.12 ↓ (3.19)	2.84 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
37.6%

Draw
29.7%

Covilhã
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

28.4%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pereira T. (G) 49. Areias R. (C) 3. Bonilla J. 14. Joaozinho 15. Martins D. 30. Moreira P. 9. Sangare M. 19. Santos Teixeira L. 23. Sinisterra J. 29. Vasco Rocha 4. Xandao	71. Joao Goncalo (G) 4. Adams M. 99. Benedict E. 9. Chico Cardoso 2. Coelho V. 87. Ferreira R. 82. Figueiredo B. 13. Michel 6. Moreira T. (C) 24. Tomas N. 21. Valente A.
Substitutes
8. Braga V. 43. Dias J. 41. Estefano L. (G) 22. Guga 5. Milhazes A. 10. Pereira N. 2. Pimenta G. 77. Ribeiro R. M. 89. Souza N.	88. Borges M. 20. Gildo 19. Joao Vasco 30. Makaridze G. (G) 44. Monteiro I. 17. Opeyemi M. 23. Pereira J. 7. Traquina 10. Ze Tiago

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Sangare M. (Pen),
45', 2 - 0, Bonilla J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Figueiredo B. ↓, Opeyemi M. ↑,
46', Tomas N. ↓, Monteiro I. ↑,
56', Sinisterra J. 🟨,
59', Sinisterra J. ↓, Milhazes A. ↑,
63', Ferreira R. ↓, Ze Tiago ↑,
76', Areias R. ↓, Pereira N. ↑,
76', Moreira P. ↓, Braga V. ↑,

Preview

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 7 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Varzim won 0.

Varzim is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Covilhã is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Varzim could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Varzim won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 9-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Varzim won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
04.05.24	Varzim - Felgueiras	2:3 ✺
28.04.24	Alverca - Varzim	1:0 ✺
20.04.24	Varzim - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	Braga B - Varzim	2:1 ✺
07.04.24	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLTLW
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
05.05.24	Covilhã - Alverca	0:2 ✺
28.04.24	Atlético CP - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
20.04.24	Covilhã - Braga B	1:2 ✺
14.04.24	Lusitânia - Covilhã	2:2 ✺
07.04.24	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
17.03.24	Covilhã - Varzim	2:2
Portuguese Liga 2
30.04.22	Varzim - Covilhã	0:2
20.12.21	Covilhã - Varzim	1:0
22.02.21	Varzim - Covilhã	1:2
26.09.20	Covilhã - Varzim	2:1
08.12.19	Varzim - Covilhã	1:0
Portuguese League Cup
28.07.19	Covilhã - Varzim	1:0 penalties

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