Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 11

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Vitoria Guimarães B

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.05	2.98
	2.36	3.1	3.15
	2.38	2.97	3.13	Watch
	2.3	2.88	3
	2.27	2.99	3.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.33)	3 ↑ (2.99)	3.06 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
39.6%

Draw
30.5%

Vitoria Guimarães B
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

30.7%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

30.3%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

The chances for Vitoria Guimarães B have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães B than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Momo Mbaye (G) 11. Benchi D. 4. Chicao 71. Filipe L. 77. Franca F. 3. Nuno P. 8. Oliveira R. 99. Pedro Clemente 45. Rebelo M. 32. Rego R. 31. Talocha	99. Guilherme (G) 76. Alcobia 79. Carvalho D. 82. Dias F. 46. Nunes H. 33. Opara E. 93. Rika 80. Rocha R. 96. Rodrigo Silva 56. Verdi S. 50. Zeega
Substitutes
27. Boloto 19. Chamito 49. Costa P. (G) 20. Derick 7. Gomes A. 14. Graca H. 35. Gunjo J. 2. Pimenta G. 17. Sequeira D.	67. Bruma 97. Carreira D. 73. Miguel Vaz 75. Oliveira A. 70. Peixoto R. 55. Rebelo D. 72. Rodrigues T. 71. Silva D. (G) 32. Tepe M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Rebelo M. ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, Opara E. ⚽, Nunes H. (A),
45', Opara E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Franca F. ↓, Gunjo J. ↑,
46', Chicao ↓, Boloto ↑,
60', Carvalho D. 🟥,
62', Verdi S. ↓, Tepe M. ↑,
65', Benchi D. 🟨,
69', 1 - 2, Rocha R. (Penalty Awarded),
72', Benchi D. ↓, Chamito ↑,
72', Pedro Clemente ↓, Sequeira D. ↑,
72', Rebelo M. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
72', Opara E. ↓, Miguel Vaz ↑,
81', 2 - 2, Chamito ⚽, Sequeira D. (A),
85', Zeega ↓, Bruma ↑,
90+6', Sequeira D. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Varzim won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Varzim - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 39.44%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
18.04.26	Trofense - Varzim	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Varzim - Mafra	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Amarante - Varzim	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Varzim - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Belenenses - Varzim	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLWL
- Vitoria Guimarães B
Portuguese Liga 3
19.04.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Belenenses - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Trofense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	3:0
11.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	1:2
04.10.25	Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1
19.02.23	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	2:1
04.11.22	Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
24.02.19	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	0:0
07.10.18	Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2

Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide