Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 22 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DSPORTS+ Plus
World	Disney+


	Vasco da Gama		Lanús

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.7	Watch
	1.98	3.3	3.75
	2.2	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.27	3.1	3.57
	2.24	3.08	3.57	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.9	Watch
	2.23	3.1	3.45	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.94)	3.11 ↓ (3.4)	3.59 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
43.4%

Draw
30.3%

Lanús
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

27.6%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.4%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Vasco da Gama - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Lanús (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 8. Jair 25. Hugo Moura 77. Rayan 11. Coutinho 17. Moreira N. 99. Vegetti P.	26. Losada N. (G) 21. Mendez A. 24. Izquierdoz C. 35. Dejesus R. 6. Marcich S. 39. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 10. Marcelino Moreno 36. Segovia A. 20. Cabrera B.
Substitutes
28. Adson 90. Alex Teixeira 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 21. Jean David 29. Lucas Oliveira 44. Luiz Gustavo 30. Lukas Zuccarello 85. Mateus Carvalho 18. Paulinho Paula 2. Rodriguez J. 12. Victor Luis	25. Aquino D. 38. Balbuena T. Y. 13. Cardozo L. 23. Carrera R. 41. Chavero J. 17. Morales L. (G) 2. Munoz E. 28. Ontivero O. 32. Orozco F. 5. Pena Biafore F. 33. Ramirez J. 50. Sanchez F.
Coaches
Fabio Carille	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Salvio E. 🟨,
32', Jair 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Izquierdoz C. 🟨,
49', Mendez A. 🟨,
61', Cabrera B. 🟨,
68', Segovia A. ↓, Carrera R. ↑,
68', Coutinho ↓, Adson ↑,
69', Jair ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
79', Adson 🟨,
80', Medina A. ↓, Pena Biafore F. ↑,
81', Cabrera B. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
81', Moreira N. ↓, Alex Teixeira ↑,
88', Mendez A. ↓, Munoz E. ↑,
88', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Ramirez J. ↑,
90+1', Rayan ↓, Lukas Zuccarello ↑,
90+1', Hugo Moura ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Vasco could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Vasco will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Vasco won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:0 (average 0:0).

Including matches at home between the teams Vasco won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
15.04.25	Ceará - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Sport Recife	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.25	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TLWWL
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.04.25	Lanús - Banfield	1:1 ✺
14.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Lanús - FBC Melgar	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.04.25	Lanús - Independiente	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Lanús	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.05.12	Lanús - Vasco da Gama	N/A

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