Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 3

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Vasco da Gama		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.98	3.3	4
	1.95	3.4	4
	1.93	3.4	4.22	Watch
	1.95	3.25	4
	1.91	3.46	4.46	Watch
	1.95	3.4	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.81)	3.37 ↓ (3.78)	4.13 ↑ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
48.9%

Draw
28.1%

Sport Recife
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

24.9%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

24.5%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Vasco da Gama - Sport Recife Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Recife (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 25. Hugo Moura 3. Tche Tche 11. Coutinho 15. Garre B. 99. Vegetti P. (C) 17. Moreira N.	22. Caique Franca (G) 32. Hereda 3. Lucas Cunha 6. Silva J. 44. Chico 14. Rivera C. 27. Oliveira S. 37. Du Queiroz 10. Lucas Lima (C) 30. Chrystian Barletta 92. Pablo
Substitutes
28. Adson 90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 8. Jair 44. Luiz Gustavo 18. Paulinho Paula 10. Payet D. 77. Rayan 2. Rodriguez J. 5. Souza 12. Victor Luis	38. Arthur Sousa 20. Atencio R. 41. Davi (G) 8. Dominguez F. 11. Gustavo Maia 19. Hyoran 77. Lenny Lobato 33. Matheus Alexandre 59. Ortiz C. 13. Renzo 91. Romarinho 12. Thiago Couto (G)
Coaches
Fabio Carille	Miguel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
31', Rivera C. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Vegetti P. ⚽, Coutinho (A),
41', Pablo ↓, Arthur Sousa ↑,
41', 2 - 0, Vegetti P. ⚽, Moreira N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 2 - 1, Hugo Moura (Own goal),
62', Garre B. ↓, Adson ↑,
62', Tche Tche ↓, Jair ↑,
65', Lucas Lima ↓, Lenny Lobato ↑,
65', Du Queiroz ↓, Dominguez F. ↑,
65', Hugo Moura 🟨,
69', Coutinho ↓, Payet D. ↑,
78', Vegetti P. ↓, Alex Teixeira ↑,
78', Moreira N. ↓, Rayan ↑,
80', Lucas Cunha ↓, Romarinho ↑,
81', Jair 🟨,
81', Alex Teixeira 🟨,
83', 3 - 1, Rayan ⚽, Payet D. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vasco won 2.

Recent matches Vasco is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recife is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recife could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Vasco is a favorite.

There will not play in Vasco: David (Knee Injury) Guilherme Estrella (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Recife: Dalbert (Calf Injury) Paciencia G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Recife: Atencio R. (Toe Injury) Hereda (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Vasco won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17:13 (average 1.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Vasco won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:7 (average 1.5:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.25	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	FBC Melgar - Vasco da Gama	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.03.25	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLTWL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
02.04.25	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	São Paulo - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Sport Recife - Altos	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
22.03.25	Retrô Brasil - Sport Recife	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.10.22	Sport Recife - Vasco da Gama	1:1
03.07.22	Vasco da Gama - Sport Recife	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
14.11.20	Sport Recife - Vasco da Gama	0:2
13.08.20	Vasco da Gama - Sport Recife	2:0
20.10.18	Sport Recife - Vasco da Gama	2:1
09.06.18	Vasco da Gama - Sport Recife	3:2
25.09.17	Sport Recife - Vasco da Gama	1:1

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