Match Info

Paulista - Round 5

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Benito Agnelo Castellano (Rio Claro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Velo Clube		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	5.5	3	1.83	Watch
	4.65	3.1	1.85	Watch
	5.54	3.15	1.89
	5.18	3.17	1.8	Watch
	4.4	3	1.83
	4.86	2.91	1.82
	5.5	3	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.09 ↑ (4.64)	3.05 ↓ (3.19)	1.84 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Velo Clube
18.4%

Draw
30.7%

Corinthians
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.7%

28.7%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Velo Clube has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Velo Clube - Corinthians Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marcelo Carne (G) 3. Islan 5. Marcelo Augusto 4. Betao 2. Ynaia 8. Mateus Norton 7. Luiz Otavio 6. Ze Mario 11. Rodrigo Alves 9. Daniel Amorim 10. Sillas	1. Hugo Souza (G) 20. Milans P. 5. Andre Ramalho 3. Gabriel Paulista 46. Hugo 23. Pereira M. 35. Charles Rigon 49. Andre 8. Garro R. (C) 56. Gui Negao 11. Vitinho
Substitutes
23. Adriano Jr 16. Caique 19. Jhoninha 20. Joao Lucas 21. Karl 22. Leo Steffen (G) 13. Lucas Mingoti 12. Paulo V. (G) 17. Rodrigo 14. Ruan 15. Thomas Luciano	7. Breno Bidon 19. Carrillo A. 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 13. Gustavo Henrique 47. Joao Pedro 31. Kayke 21. Matheus Bidu 2. Matheuzinho 18. Pedro Raul 14. Raniele 9. Yuri Alberto
Coaches
Pintado	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Luiz Otavio 🟨,
35', Rodrigo Alves 🟨,
41', Gui Negao 🟨,
45+4', Ynaia 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Islan 🟨,
57', Daniel Amorim ↓, Jhoninha ↑,
70', Pereira M. ↓, Yuri Alberto ↑,
70', Milans P. ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
70', Charles Rigon ↓, Raniele ↑,
71', Luiz Otavio ↓, Karl ↑,
71', Sillas ↓, Adriano Jr ↑,
77', Mateus Norton 🟨,
81', Karl 🟨,
82', Gui Negao ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
82', Garro R. ↓, Breno Bidon ↑,
83', Mateus Norton ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
83', Rodrigo Alves ↓, Ruan ↑,
90+1', 0 - 1, Yuri Alberto ⚽,
90+3', Yuri Alberto 🟨,
90+4', Breno Bidon 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Corinthians has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Velo Clube may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Corinthians is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Velo Clube: Lucas Duni (Inactive)

There will not play in Corinthians: Depay M. (Inactive) Martinez J. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Velo Clube won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 51.54%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Velo Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.01.26	Velo Clube - Guarani	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Portuguesa - Velo Clube	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Ponte Preta - Velo Clube	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Velo Clube - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Velo Clube - Água Santa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LLWTW
- Corinthians
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.01.26	Santos - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Corinthians	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.12.25	Vasco da Gama - Corinthians	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.01.25	Corinthians - Velo Clube	2:1

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