Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida)

Referee: Armenta J. E. H. (Mex)


	Venados		Jaiba Brava

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.72	3.3	2.35	Watch
	2.88	3.58	2.37
	2.26	3.60	2.74	Watch
	2.9	3.34	2.29	Watch
	2.27	3.5	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.28)	3.46 ↓ (3.57)	2.5 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venados
35.8%

Draw
26.9%

Jaiba Brava
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

25.9%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

27.2%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Jaiba Brava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venados than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Venados, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jaiba Brava, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Venados - Jaiba Brava Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Delgado A. (G) 18. Amador K. 7. Calero J. 2. Casillas J. 19. Catalan A. 8. Dominguez A. 4. Grijalva A. 10. Guzman W. 11. Madrid W. 15. Navarrete D. 33. Vidrio N. (C)	13. Ruiz G. (G) 22. Clemente J. 16. Dominguez R. 23. Escoboza A. 28. Flores S. (C) 3. Garcia D. 6. Garcia E. 29. Pedroza M. 21. Peralta J. 26. Perez E. 8. Torres E.
Substitutes
12. Acosta C. 143. Benitez S. 16. Espinosa E. 23. Galvan P. 3. Levin J. 21. Lopez C. 6. Lopez F. 5. Miranda J. 1. Reyes D. (G) 30. Torres Sauri M.	1. Garcia J. (G) 9. Garza A. 2. Gonzalez C. 33. Gonzalez R. 7. Magana D. 19. Martinez F. 25. Perez O. 30. Ramos Saucedo S. 4. Rios A. 10. Soto O.
Coaches
Garcia I. C.	Ruiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Guzman W. ⚽, Madrid W. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Peralta J. ↓, Perez O. ↑,
46', Perez E. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Escoboza A. ⚽, Torres E. (A),
59', Navarrete D. ↓, Acosta C. ↑,
69', Clemente J. 🟨,
71', Catalan A. 🟨,
73', Guzman W. ↓, Benitez S. ↑,
73', Catalan A. ↓, Torres Sauri M. ↑,
77', Pedroza M. ↓, Garza A. ↑,
80', Calero J. ↓, Lopez C. ↑,
80', Amador K. ↓, Espinosa E. ↑,
84', Clemente J. ↓, Rios A. ↑,
90+1', Escoboza A. ↓, Magana D. ↑,
90+3', Torres E. 🟨,
90+6', Dominguez R. 🟨,
90+6', Flores S. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Jaiba Brava is Qualified for Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venados won 1.

Recent performances by Venados have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jaiba Brava is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Venados may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Venados won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:21. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Venados won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
18.10.25	Atlante - Venados	3:0 ✺
10.10.25	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
26.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	3:6 ✺
20.09.25	Venados - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:3 ✺
13.09.25	Cancún - Venados	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWWL
- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
18.10.25	Jaiba Brava - Atlético La Paz	3:2 ✺
15.10.25	Jaiba Brava - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:2 ✺
11.10.25	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Dorados - Jaiba Brava	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Jaiba Brava - Cancún	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.01.25	Venados - Jaiba Brava	1:2
02.08.24	Jaiba Brava - Venados	0:0
15.02.22	Venados - Jaiba Brava	2:1
10.08.21	Jaiba Brava - Venados	3:0
02.03.21	Venados - Jaiba Brava	1:1
01.09.20	Jaiba Brava - Venados	1:1
08.03.20	Jaiba Brava - Venados	1:0

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