Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 23

Date: 4 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ciro Vigorito (Benevento)

Referee: Sacchi J. L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Benevento		Venezia

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.4	3	3.1
	2.4	3	3.15	Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.15
	2.53	3	3.35
	2.3	3	3.3
	2.31	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.4	3.05	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.32)	3.05 ↓ (3.1)	3.18 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benevento
39.5%

Draw
30.9%

Venezia
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

30.3%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

27.6%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benevento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Venezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	18.2%	36.4%

Benevento - Venezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Benevento will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Venezia will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benevento: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Benevento has the most likely position - 18 (10.32%), has project points - 45, has currently - 23, has a chance of relegated (33%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Venezia has the most likely position - 19 (15.16%), has project points - 42, has currently - 21, has a chance of relegated (49%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 33, importance 55, match rating 44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Benevento won 4.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Benevento will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Benevento won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Benevento won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
29.01.23	Frosinone - Benevento	1:0 ✺
21.01.23	Benevento - Genoa	1:2 ✺
15.01.23	Nuova Cosenza - Benevento	1:1 ✺
26.12.22	Benevento - Perugia	0:2 ✺
18.12.22	Modena - Benevento	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTLT
- Venezia FC
Italian Serie B
28.01.23	Venezia - Cittadella	1:1 ✺
21.01.23	Venezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
16.01.23	Genoa - Venezia	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
07.01.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Venezia	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Venezia - Parma	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
03.09.22	Venezia - Benevento	0:2
10.07.20	Benevento - Venezia	1:1
30.11.19	Venezia - Benevento	0:2
Club Friendly
26.07.19	Benevento - Venezia	Canceled
Italian Serie B
03.02.19	Benevento - Venezia	3:0
14.09.18	Venezia - Benevento	2:3

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