Match Info

ASIA: AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - ROUND 5

Date: 29 November 2023, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Germany	Sport 1+
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Sport 1


	Ventforet Kofu		Melbourne City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	3.5	2.75	Watch
	2.35	3.6	2.75	Watch
	2.31	3.76	2.96
	2.34	3.76	2.84
	2.2	3.5	2.7
	2.21	3.64	2.99	Watch
	2.43	3.45	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.55)	3.6 ↑ (3.44)	2.81 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ventforet Kofu
40.5%

Draw
26%

Melbourne City
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

26.3%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

27%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ventforet Kofu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ventforet Kofu than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ventforet Kofu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Melbourne City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Ventforet Kofu - Melbourne City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Kofu will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Melbourne City will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kofu: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Shibuya T. (G) 23. Sekiguchi M. (C) 49. Inoue S. 5. Hasukawa S. 13. Miura S. 16. Hayashida K. 71. Nakamura R. 18. Torikai Y. 9. Mitsuhira K. 10. Hasegawa M. 99. Utaka P.	1. Young J. (G) 25. Talbot C. 26. Souprayen S. 22. Good C. 16. Behich A. 11. Leo Natel 21. Lopane A. 6. Ugarkovic S. 44. Jakolis M. 10. Arslan T. 9. Maclaren J. (C)
Substitutes
7. Araki S. 30. Cristiano 77. Getulio 15. Iijima R. 29. Kamiya K. 1. Kawata K. (G) 6. Kobayashi I. 40. Mancha E. 11. Matsumoto K. 24. Matsumoto N. 19. Miyazaki J. 4. Yamamoto H.	17. Antonis T. 33. Beach P. (G) 43. Esposito S. 2. Galloway S. 18. Hall J. 7. Leckie M. 46. Mazzeo B. 38. Politidis H. 8. Sakhi H.
Coaches
Shinoda Y.	Vidmar A.

Preview

Recent matches Kofu is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Melbourne City is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Kofu could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Kofu won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ventforet Kofu
Japan J2 League
11.11.23	Montedio Yamagata - Ventforet Kofu	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
08.11.23	Ventforet Kofu - Zhejiang Professional	4:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
03.11.23	Ventforet Kofu - Roasso Kumamoto	2:0 ✺
29.10.23	Omiya Ardija - Ventforet Kofu	0:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
25.10.23	Zhejiang Professional - Ventforet Kofu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWWL
- Melbourne City
Australian A-League
24.11.23	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	1:0 ✺
11.11.23	Melbourne City - Macarthur FC	3:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
08.11.23	Melbourne City - Buriram United	0:1 ✺
Australian A-League
03.11.23	Melbourne City - Sydney	2:0 ✺
29.10.23	Adelaide United - Melbourne City	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
20.09.23	Melbourne City - Ventforet Kofu	0:0

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