Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 21

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	Vigor Senigallia		Ostia Mare

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.25	1.85
	3.71	3.42	1.88	Watch
	3.76	3.32	1.87
	3.8	3.25	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↓ (3.8)	3.31 ↑ (3.28)	1.87 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vigor Senigallia
24.1%

Draw
27.4%

Ostia Mare
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

27.7%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

28.2%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vigor Senigallia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Ostia Mare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vigor Senigallia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ostia Mare than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Vigor Senigallia - Ostia Mare Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', 0 - 1, Cardella F. ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 1, Tomba A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Vigor Senigallia has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ostia Mare is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Ostia Mare is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vigor Senigallia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	4	1	1	14:10	4	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vigor Senigallia
Italian Serie D - Group F
18.01.26	Sora - Vigor Senigallia	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Giulianova - Vigor Senigallia	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Vigor Senigallia - Maceratese	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Vigor Senigallia - UniPomezia	3:2 ✺
14.12.25	Chieti - Vigor Senigallia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WTWWW
- AS Ostia Mare Lido Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
18.01.26	Ostia Mare - San Marino Calcio	5:0 ✺
11.01.26	Maceratese - Ostia Mare	1:3 ✺
04.01.26	Ostia Mare - Ancona	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Ostia Mare - Giulianova	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Termoli - Ostia Mare	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
24.09.25	Ostia Mare - Vigor Senigallia	1:0

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