Match Info

Date: 3 January 2022, Monday


	Vilafranquense		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.3	1.9
	3.6	3.25	2
	3.65	3.3	1.91
	3.8	3.2	1.96
	4.01	3.47	2.01
	3.6	3.1	1.95
	4.05	3.3	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.79 ↑ (3.05)	3.27 ↑ (3.1)	1.95 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
24.4%

Draw
28.2%

Casa Pia
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

29.3%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22%

21.6%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vilafranquense's form might have worsened.

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casa Pia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casa Pia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.7%	24.1%	55.2%

Vilafranquense - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Vilafranquense will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 16 - 55.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 24.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Casa Pia: 37.1% – 73.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 14 and 4).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Casa Pia is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Vilafranquense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
20.12.21	Benfica B - Vilafranquense	0:0 ✺
12.12.21	Vilafranquense - Porto B	2:1 ✺
04.12.21	Vilafranquense - Feirense	1:1 ✺
27.11.21	Académico de Viseu - Vilafranquense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.11.21	Vilafranquense - Mafra	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWTTL
- Casa Pia
Taça de Portugal
22.12.21	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
19.12.21	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	0:1 ✺
13.12.21	Estrela da Amadora - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
02.12.21	Casa Pia - Varzim	1:0 ✺
26.11.21	Farense - Casa Pia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
13.03.21	Casa Pia - Vilafranquense	3:0
24.10.20	Vilafranquense - Casa Pia	2:2
02.11.19	Casa Pia - Vilafranquense	3:2
Portuguese League Cup
28.07.19	Casa Pia - Vilafranquense	1:0 penalties
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
23.06.19	Vilafranquense - Casa Pia	2:3 penalties
Taça de Portugal
15.10.17	Vilafranquense - Casa Pia	2:1 ET

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