Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 28

Date: 7 April 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
World	Disney+


	Farense		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.75
	2.45	3.1	3	Watch
	2.45	3.11	3.12	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.8	Watch
	2.46	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.45	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.7)	3.07 ↓ (3.1)	2.98 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
38%

Draw
30.6%

Casa Pia
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

29.9%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

28.9%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.9%	22.2%	38.9%

Farense - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 17.8% – 64.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Farense (votes: 3 - 50%). Casa Pia (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Casa Pia (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Casa Pia (1.82) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Farense (votes: 4 - 40%). Casa Pia (votes: 6 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Velho R. (C) 28. Pastor 44. Lucas Africo 29. Claudio Falcao 31. Derick Poloni 6. Neto 93. Menino M. 2. Paulo Victor 10. Njie Y. 20. Rony Lopes 9. Tomane	1. Sequeira P. (G) 4. Goulart J. 6. Fonte J. (C) 2. Tchamba D. 72. Larrazabal G. 14. Miguel Sousa 89. Kraev A. 5. Lelo L. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano 80. Pablo Roberto
Substitutes
11. Bermejo A. 19. Costa R. 4. Jorge A. 1. Kaique Pereira (G) 77. Matias M. 5. Ribeiro T. 70. Rivaldo 21. Soares F. 8. Ze Carlos	33. Batista R. (G) 12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 17. Brito R. 88. Caue 18. Geraldes A. 24. Mohamed I. 44. Monteiro I. 52. Pereira H. 11. Tiago Dias
Coaches
Marreco T.	Santana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Lucas Africo 🟨,
22', Neto 🟨,
43', Tchamba D. ↓, Geraldes A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
64', Njie Y. ↓, Costa R. ↑,
65', Miguel Sousa ↓, Caue ↑,
65', Kraev A. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
72', Derick Poloni 🟨,
81', Derick Poloni ↓, Matias M. ↑,
81', Neto ↓, Soares F. ↑,
85', Livolant J. ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
85', Pablo Roberto ↓, Brito R. ↑,
87', Brito R. 🟨,
90+3', Menino M. ↓, Ribeiro T. ↑,
90+8', Geraldes A. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Farense won 1.

Farense is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Casa Pia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Casa Pia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki (Injury) Kluivert R. (Yellow Cards) Mendes C. (Knee Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Farense won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12:13 (average 1.2:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:7 (average 1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
02.04.25	Benfica - Farense	3:2 ✺
15.03.25	Farense - Braga	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Estoril Praia - Farense	2:2 ✺
02.03.25	Farense - AVS	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Arouca - Farense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLTLT
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
29.03.25	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Nacional - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
09.03.25	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	1:3 ✺
01.03.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
09.11.24	Casa Pia - Farense	1:1
20.01.24	Casa Pia - Farense	1:3
12.08.23	Farense - Casa Pia	0:3
Portuguese Liga 2
09.04.22	Casa Pia - Farense	1:0
26.11.21	Farense - Casa Pia	0:1
Taça de Portugal
19.11.21	Casa Pia - Farense	3:1
Portuguese Liga 2
26.01.20	Casa Pia - Farense	0:2

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