Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 24

Date: 11 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilafranquense		Farense

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.7
	2.6	2.95	2.55
	2.6	2.88	2.7
	2.7	3.05	2.6
	2.73	3.11	2.89
	2.55	2.88	2.7
	2.61	3.1	2.71
	2.65	3	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.4)	3 ↓ (3.15)	2.68 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
35%

Draw
30.7%

Farense
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

28.4%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

27.5%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	62.5%	12.5%

Vilafranquense - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vilafranquense will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Farense will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 5 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 5-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Vilafranquense won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
04.03.23	Benfica B - Vilafranquense	0:2 ✺
26.02.23	Vilafranquense - Porto B	1:2 ✺
18.02.23	Feirense - Vilafranquense	1:2 ✺
11.02.23	Vilafranquense - Trofense	0:1 ✺
04.02.23	Oliveirense - Vilafranquense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWLT
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
05.03.23	Farense - Leixões	1:0 ✺
26.02.23	Covilhã - Farense	1:0 ✺
19.02.23	Farense - Mafra	1:0 ✺
12.02.23	Académico de Viseu - Farense	2:0 ✺
03.02.23	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
18.09.22	Farense - Vilafranquense	2:1
27.02.22	Farense - Vilafranquense	1:0
03.10.21	Vilafranquense - Farense	2:2
21.02.20	Vilafranquense - Farense	0:3
14.09.19	Farense - Vilafranquense	3:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
27.05.18	Vilafranquense - Farense	1:1
19.05.18	Farense - Vilafranquense	3:0

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