Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 28

Date: 7 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra (Coimbra)

Referee: Costa Teixeira Afonso J. P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilaverdense		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.3
	2.75	3.1	2.25
	2.95	3.3	2.35	Watch
	2.91	3.44	2.48
	2.8	3.47	2.54
	2.7	3.25	2.3
	2.9	3.35	2.37	Watch
	2.85	3.25	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.7)	3.3 ↓ (3.35)	2.36 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilaverdense
32.8%

Draw
28.1%

Mafra
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

28.3%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

28.8%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilaverdense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilaverdense than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	21.4%	64.3%

Vilaverdense - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Vilaverdense will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Mafra will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mafra: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Santos R. (G) 6. Konate B. 27. Freitas C. 26. Batista J. 12. Maviram E. 88. Neves L. 23. Ericson (C) 25. Seedorf S. 8. Joao Caiado 11. Bruno Silva 7. Teixeira G.	16. Olafsson E. (G) 44. Texel P. 4. Goulart J. (C) 19. Diao O. 17. de Sousa Dias Pedro Lopes A. F. 20. Miguel Sousa 6. Bravo P. 8. Gabriel L. 27. Nibe A. 9. Almeida D. 18. Sturgeon F.
Substitutes
52. Burst J. 82. Cajo (G) 17. Fati N. 70. Hanne B. 4. Kawale R. 3. Laercio 19. Lopes A. 5. Sako M. 10. Soares A.	1. Andre Paulo (G) 80. Balburdia M. 3. Chriso 7. Dju M. 62. Fabinho 96. Fale M. 77. Matos R. 10. Pite 30. Queiros J.
Coaches
Machado S.	Silas

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Bravo P. 🟨,
45+2', Ericson 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', Diao O. 🟨,
52', Nibe A. 🟨,
56', Maviram E. 🟨,
58', Sturgeon F. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
58', Gabriel L. ↓, Fale M. ↑,
64', Seedorf S. ↓, Soares A. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Bruno Silva ⚽, Teixeira G. (A),
67', Nibe A. ↓, Pite ↑,
75', Maviram E. ↓, Lopes A. ↑,
75', Bruno Silva ↓, Hanne B. ↑,
78', Texel P. ↓, Dju M. ↑,
78', Bravo P. ↓, Fabinho ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Miguel Sousa ⚽,
86', Ericson ↓, Sako M. ↑,
86', Teixeira G. ↓, Laercio ↑,
87', Batista J. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 1, Soares A. ⚽, Neves L. (A),

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 8).

Vilaverdense has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Mafra is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Vilaverdense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Vilaverdense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Vilaverdense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilaverdense FC
Portuguese Liga 2
29.03.24	Tondela - Vilaverdense	1:0 ✺
18.03.24	Vilaverdense - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
09.03.24	Porto B - Vilaverdense	2:1 ✺
04.03.24	Vilaverdense - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
24.02.24	Benfica B - Vilaverdense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
01.04.24	Mafra - Torreense	2:1 ✺
17.03.24	Leixões - Mafra	1:1 ✺
09.03.24	Mafra - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
02.03.24	Leiria - Mafra	2:3 ✺
25.02.24	Mafra - Marítimo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
18.11.23	Mafra - Vilaverdense	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
13.05.18	Vilaverdense - Mafra	2:4

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