Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 26

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Referee: Shirzad H. (Por)


	Leiria		Mafra

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	4.75
	1.73	3.25	4.33
	1.79	3.4	4.6
	1.88	3.55	4.85
	1.8	3.28	4.89	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.6
	1.78	3.35	4.82	Watch
	1.79	3.4	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.82)	3.33 ↓ (3.44)	4.68 ↑ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria
52.2%

Draw
28%

Mafra
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

27.2%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

26.6%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Leiria - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Leiria will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Mafra will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kieszek P. (G) 52. Sylla H. 5. Rofino V. G. 14. Ze Vitor 15. Kaka 7. Ryan Guilherme 25. Amado D. (C) 10. van der Gaag J. 9. Munoz J. 26. Resende J. 99. dos Anjos D.	1. Fraisl M. (G) 14. Alves K. 32. Rodrigo Freitas 29. Rossi R. 5. Beni D. 3. Chriso 80. Goncalves V. 90. Etim F. 9. Nibe A. 15. Guilherme (C) 95. Rochez B.
Substitutes
3. Baro M. 4. Bura 29. Ferreira F. (G) 11. Jair da Silva 38. Kouassi E. 81. Mbina O. 58. Monteiro D. 18. Ribeiro C. 28. Singh S.	24. Camara M. 16. Djabi A. 10. Fale M. 19. Iheanacho S. 8. Lucas Gabriel 7. Matos R. 35. Monteiro V. 2. Texel P. 30. Ugboh M. (G)
Coaches
Silas	Alves P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Rochez B. ⚽, Beni D. (A),
17', 1 - 1, Munoz J. (Pen),
41', Sylla H. 🟨,
44', dos Anjos D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', Resende J. ↓, Singh S. ↑,
61', Amado D. ↓, Kouassi E. ↑,
66', Rochez B. 🟨,
66', Goncalves V. ↓, Monteiro V. ↑,
71', Rofino V. G. 🟨,
77', Alves K. 🟥,
79', 2 - 1, Munoz J. (Pen),
80', Kaka ↓, Baro M. ↑,
80', dos Anjos D. ↓, Mbina O. ↑,
81', Rossi R. ↓, Lucas Gabriel ↑,
81', Guilherme ↓, Iheanacho S. ↑,
87', van der Gaag J. ↓, Jair da Silva ↑,
90+1', 3 - 1, Munoz J. ⚽, Singh S. (A),

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Leiria is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mafra is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Leiria could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Leiria is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leiria won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:9 (average 0.8:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Leiria won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
08.03.25	Felgueiras - Leiria	2:2 ✺
02.03.25	Leiria - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Marítimo - Leiria	1:2 ✺
17.02.25	Leiria - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Leiria - Porto B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWWTT
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
09.03.25	Mafra - Porto B	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Alverca - Mafra	2:0 ✺
22.02.25	Mafra - Vizela	1:4 ✺
15.02.25	Tondela - Mafra	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Mafra - Chaves	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.10.24	Mafra - Leiria	2:1
02.03.24	Leiria - Mafra	2:3
08.10.23	Mafra - Leiria	3:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
27.05.18	Leiria - Mafra	1:1
19.05.18	Mafra - Leiria	0:0

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