Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 33

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra (Coimbra)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV5


	Vilaverdense		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.4	2.38
	2.75	3.1	2.3
	2.95	3.3	2.35
	2.99	3.36	2.46
	3.05	3.31	2.45
	2.75	3.25	2.3
	2.85	3.27	2.36
	2.75	3.2	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.83)	3.27 ↑ (3.26)	2.37 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilaverdense
32.4%

Draw
28.4%

Penafiel
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

28.8%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

28.7%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilaverdense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilaverdense than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Vilaverdense - Penafiel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
82. Cajo (G) 27. Freitas C. 6. Konate B. 26. Batista J. 19. Lopes A. 88. Neves L. 23. Ericson (C) 70. Hanne B. 8. Joao Caiado 11. Bruno Silva 7. Teixeira G.	31. Balde M. (G) 68. Maga 4. Miguel J. 6. Teixeira L. (C) 44. Pereira R. 19. Chico Teixeira 13. Pinheiro Edu 8. Reko 75. Ribeiro R. 17. Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) 30. Silva A.
Substitutes
52. Burst J. 17. Fati N. 4. Kawale R. 3. Laercio 12. Maviram E. 78. Reum C. 5. Sako M. 93. Santos R. (G) 25. Seedorf S.	11. Adilio 21. Batista D. 26. Brito D. 73. Filipe Ferreira (G) 7. Firmino H. 20. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 15. Silva J. 9. Suker H. 99. Vieira P.
Coaches
Machado S.	Cristovao H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Pereira R. ⚽, Chico Teixeira (A),
41', Konate B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Batista J. 🟨,
61', Reko 🟨,
61', Lopes A. ↓, Maviram E. ↑,
61', Batista J. ↓, Laercio ↑,
61', Ericson ↓, Seedorf S. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Bruno Silva ⚽,
69', Reko ↓, Batista D. ↑,
69', Teixeira L. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
69', Chico Teixeira ↓, Vieira P. ↑,
81', Silva A. ↓, Ribeiro Oliveira J. ↑,
86', Pinheiro Edu ↓, Suker H. ↑,
87', Freitas C. ↓, Burst J. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Hanne B. ⚽,
90+3', Bruno Silva ↓, Sako M. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 13).

Recent matches Vilaverdense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Penafiel is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Penafiel could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Vilaverdense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilaverdense FC
Portuguese Liga 2
05.05.24	Vilaverdense - Torreense	0:1 ✺
27.04.24	Leixões - Vilaverdense	1:3 ✺
21.04.24	Vilaverdense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
13.04.24	Leiria - Vilaverdense	3:1 ✺
07.04.24	Vilaverdense - Mafra	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWLLW
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
05.05.24	Penafiel - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
25.04.24	Leiria - Penafiel	0:2 ✺
20.04.24	Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	Tondela - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
06.04.24	Penafiel - Belenenses	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
06.01.24	Penafiel - Vilaverdense	2:1

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