Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 28

Date: 6 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Penafiel		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.4
	1.95	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2	3.3	3.75	Watch
	2.06	3.31	4.01
	2.05	3.31	4.01
	1.91	3.25	3.6
	1.96	3.4	3.83
	2.02	3.25	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.06)	3.27 ↑ (3.25)	3.68 ↑ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
46.5%

Draw
28.3%

Belenenses
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.3%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

27.7%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Penafiel - Belenenses Predictions

Users Predictions: Penafiel will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Balde M. (G) 68. Maga 4. Miguel J. (C) 44. Pereira R. 15. Silva J. 75. Ribeiro R. 21. Batista D. 8. Reko 30. Silva A. 9. Suker H. 7. Firmino H.	22. Grilo D. (G) 48. Manso T. 33. Correia R. (C) 37. Akas C. 5. Goncalves T. 28. Cruz H. 21. Pina R. 12. Dini F. 8. Gomes Tavares D. 77. Keita M. 87. Zequinha
Substitutes
11. Adilio 26. Brito D. 19. Chico Teixeira 27. Freitas R. 17. Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) 13. Pinheiro Edu 1. Silva P. (G) 6. Teixeira L. 99. Vieira P.	25. Carvalho P. 16. Chapi 23. Fernandes X. 34. Ilori T. 9. Matos R. 14. Oliveira G. (G) 11. Sambu M. 10. Tavares M. 19. Valente D.
Coaches
Cristovao H.	Barreto M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Correia R. 🟨,
31', Keita M. ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
45+2', Pereira R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Silva A. ⚽, Firmino H. (A),
50', Grilo D. 🟨,
51', 2 - 0, Ribeiro R. (Pen),
59', Cruz H. ↓, Fernandes X. ↑,
70', Zequinha ↓, Matos R. ↑,
70', Dini F. ↓, Chapi ↑,
77', Silva A. ↓, Chico Teixeira ↑,
78', Suker H. ↓, Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) ↑,
81', 3 - 0, Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) ⚽,
85', Pereira R. ↓, Teixeira L. ↑,
86', Firmino H. ↓, Vieira P. ↑,
86', Batista D. ↓, Pinheiro Edu ↑,

Preview

Penafiel is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Belenenses is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Penafiel could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Penafiel will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
30.03.24	Porto B - Penafiel	3:1 ✺
16.03.24	Penafiel - Benfica B	0:1 ✺
09.03.24	Mafra - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
03.03.24	Penafiel - AVS	0:1 ✺
24.02.24	Nacional - Penafiel	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWLL
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
29.03.24	Belenenses - Feirense	3:1 ✺
18.03.24	Vilaverdense - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
11.03.24	Belenenses - Leixões	1:2 ✺
05.03.24	Marítimo - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
25.02.24	Belenenses - Torreense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
19.11.23	Belenenses - Penafiel	2:0

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