Match Info

Date: 2 October 2021, Saturday


	Villa Española		Atletico Fenix Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.1	Watch
	2.85	3.5	2.2
	2.75	3.3	2.25
	3.15	3.35	2.06
	3.23	3.62	2.24
	3.1	3.25	2.15
	3.1	3.5	2.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↓ (3.05)	3.42 ↓ (3.47)	2.17 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villa Española
30.5%

Draw
27%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

27.1%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.8%

20.1%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villa Española has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villa Española than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villa Española that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (+14.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atletico Fenix Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Villa Española - Atletico Fenix Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 7).

Villa Española is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fenix is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Villa Española could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Villa Española won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Villa Española won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSD Villa Española
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.09.21	Plaza Colonia - Villa Española	4:0 ✺
18.09.21	Villa Española - Sud América	1:2 ✺
13.09.21	Progreso - Villa Española	1:1 ✺
22.08.21	Cerro Largo - Villa Española	3:1 ✺
15.08.21	Villa Española - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTLT
- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.09.21	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
17.09.21	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:0 ✺
12.09.21	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Rentistas	3:1 ✺
20.08.21	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
16.08.21	Boston River - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
07.06.21	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Villa Española	1:0
10.12.16	Villa Española - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:2

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