Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 5

Date: 15 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio de Gran Canaria (Las Palmas)

Referee: Ortiz M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	K-Sport 1
Argentina	ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	ESPN 2
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Max
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	Now Player, Now Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	K Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 1, M+ LaLiga 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Taiwan	DAZN
Tanzania	Azam Sports 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	beIN Sports 1, S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, FuboTV
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15, SCTV Online
World	Disney+, Prima+ app, Setanta Sports 2 Eurasia


	Las Palmas		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	2	Watch
	3.75	3.3	2.05
	4	3.3	2.05	Watch
	4	3.41	2.11
	3.85	3.4	2.08	Watch
	3.8	3.4	2.05
	3.89	3.56	2.1	Watch
	4	3.3	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.89 ↑ (3.52)	3.38 ↓ (3.38)	2.06 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Las Palmas
24.8%

Draw
28.5%

Athletic Bilbao
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

28.4%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

24.4%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Palmas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Las Palmas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	11.9%	83.3%

Las Palmas - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (35 of 42 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.06% – 94.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cillessen J. (G) 2. Marvin 4. Alex Suarez 15. McKenna S. 3. Marmol M. 19. Ramirez S. 5. Javier Munoz 8. Campana J. 20. Rodriguez K. (C) 10. Moleiro A. 16. McBurnie O.	13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 18. de Marcos O. (C) 4. Paredes A. 3. Vivian D. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 23. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. 8. Sancet O. 10. Williams N. 12. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
9. Cardona M. 29. Essugo D. 14. Fuster M. 6. Gonzalez F. 28. Herzog J. 13. Horkas D. (G) 12. Loiodice E. 17. Mata J. 23. Munoz A. 11. Ramirez B. 37. Silva F. 18. Viti	7. Berenguer A. 32. Boiro A. 11. Djalo A. 20. Gomez U. 2. Gorosabel A. 21. Herrera A. 15. Lekue I. 14. Nunez U. 26. Padilla A. (G) 24. Prados Diaz B. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M.
Coaches
Carrion L.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Sancet O. ⚽, Williams I. (A),
22', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
27', Alex Suarez 🟨,
30', 0 - 2, Williams N. ⚽, Williams I. (A),
45+2', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Alex Suarez ↓, Munoz A. ↑,
46', Campana J. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
56', Jauregizar M. 🟥,
58', 1 - 2, Ramirez S. ⚽,
59', Guruzeta G. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
59', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Prados Diaz B. ↑,
63', Javier Munoz ↓, Silva F. ↑,
71', Sancet O. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
71', Williams N. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
76', 1 - 3, Paredes A. ⚽, Williams I. (A),
77', de Marcos O. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
77', McKenna S. ↓, Ramirez B. ↑,
77', McBurnie O. ↓, Mata J. ↑,
83', 2 - 3, Munoz A. ⚽, Rodriguez K. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 1.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Las Palmas could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Athletic will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz de Galarreta I. (Calf Injury) Simon U. (Wrist Injury)

There are questionable in Las Palmas: Januzaj A. (Muscle Injury) Pejino (Muscle Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Las Palmas won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga
01.09.24	Deportivo Alavés - Las Palmas	2:0 ✺
29.08.24	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
25.08.24	Leganés - Las Palmas	2:1 ✺
16.08.24	Las Palmas - Sevilla	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
11.08.24	Liverpool - Las Palmas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LTLTT
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
31.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
28.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Valencia	1:0 ✺
24.08.24	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
15.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Getafe	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.24	Stuttgart - Athletic Bilbao	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
10.03.24	Las Palmas - Athletic Bilbao	0:2
20.12.23	Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas	1:0
09.02.18	Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas	0:0
17.09.17	Las Palmas - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
14.04.17	Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas	5:1
28.11.16	Las Palmas - Athletic Bilbao	3:1
08.05.16	Las Palmas - Athletic Bilbao	0:0

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