Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Walsh N. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 7, SuperSport Variety 2
Argentina	17:00	Disney+
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 8
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 8, Pickx+ Sports 8
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	17:00	HBO Max
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	Disney+
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	Disney+
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 6
Georgia	00:00	Silk Sport 3
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	SÝN Sport 5
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	21:00	Sky Sport 258
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect
Mexico	14:00	HBO Max
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport OTT 7
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Peru	15:00	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Philippines	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 7
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 5
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport OTT 7, SuperSport Variety 2
South America	—	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect
Turkey	23:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus, TV 360
International	20:00	VIX App


	Villarreal		Ajax

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.75	8.5
	1.33	5.75	8.9
	1.59	4.55	5.3
	1.36	5.83	7.92	Watch
	1.33	5	7.5
	1.37	5.89	8.5
	1.35	5.66	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.58)	5.49 ↑ (4.48)	7.73 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal
69.9%

Draw
17.6%

Ajax
12.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.3%

21.3%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

21.3%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Villarreal's performance.

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villarreal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.8%	12.3%	21.9%

Villarreal - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Villarreal will win (votes: 48 - 65.8%). Ajax will win (votes: 16 - 21.9%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 12.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 54.9% – 76.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Villarreal (votes: 18 - 72%). Ajax (votes: 2 - 8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Tenas A. (G) 15. Mourino S. 4. Marin R. 12. Veiga R. 23. Cardona S. 19. Pepe N. 14. Comesana S. 16. Partey T. 20. Moleiro A. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 22. Perez A.	1. Jaros V. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 30. Bouwman A. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 18. Klaassen D. 6. Regeer Y. 24. Mokio J. 10. Gloukh O. 9. Dolberg K. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
17. Buchanan T. 13. Conde D. (G) 32. Lopez H. 1. Luiz Junior (G) 9. Mikautadze G. 7. Moreno G. 26. Navarro P. 10. Parejo D. 24. Pedraza A.	41. Alders G. 43. Bounida R. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 4. Itakura K. 7. Moro R. 68. Ouazane A. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L. 48. Steur S. 37. Sutalo J.
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Grim F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Wijndal O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Moleiro A. ↓, Buchanan T. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Oluwaseyi T. ⚽, Marin R. (A),
54', Regeer Y. ↓, Itakura K. ↑,
60', Mourino S. 🟨,
61', 1 - 1, Gloukh O. ⚽,
71', Partey T. 🟨,
71', Dolberg K. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
71', Mokio J. ↓, Steur S. ↑,
72', Pepe N. ↓, Mikautadze G. ↑,
72', Perez A. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
74', Partey T. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
80', Marin R. 🟨,
84', Gloukh O. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
84', Wijndal O. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
88', Bouwman A. 🟨,
90', 1 - 2, Edvardsen O. ⚽, Gaaei A. (A),

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Villarreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Villarreal is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Eto'o E. (Inactive) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Gueye P. (Yellow Cards) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) Ibrahimovic M. (Inactive) Tomiyasu T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Weghorst W. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Pedraza A. (Broken nose)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Villarreal	3	1	0	2	8:8	0	3

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Villarreal: 0.85%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
17.01.26	Betis - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Villarreal - Deportivo Alavés	3:1 ✺
03.01.26	Elche - Villarreal	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Villarreal - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.12.25	Racing Santander - Villarreal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
17.01.26	Ajax - Go Ahead Eagles	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	6:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.26	Telstar - Ajax	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Ajax - Seraing	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
20.12.25	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLWWT

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