Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)

Referee: Walsh N. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 7, SuperSport Variety 2
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Malaysia	beIN Connect
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World	VIX App


	Villarreal		Ajax

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.75	8.5
	1.33	5.75	8.9
	1.59	4.55	5.3
	1.36	5.83	7.92	Watch
	1.33	5	7.5
	1.37	5.89	8.5
	1.35	5.66	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.58)	5.49 ↑ (4.48)	7.73 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal
69.9%

Draw
17.6%

Ajax
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

21.3%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

21.5%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Villarreal's performance.

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villarreal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.8%	12.3%	21.9%

Villarreal - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Villarreal will win (votes: 48 - 65.8%). Ajax will win (votes: 16 - 21.9%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 12.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 54.9% – 76.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Villarreal (votes: 18 - 72%). Ajax (votes: 2 - 8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Tenas A. (G) 15. Mourino S. 4. Marin R. 12. Veiga R. 23. Cardona S. 19. Pepe N. 14. Comesana S. 16. Partey T. 20. Moleiro A. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 22. Perez A.	1. Jaros V. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 30. Bouwman A. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 18. Klaassen D. 6. Regeer Y. 24. Mokio J. 10. Gloukh O. 9. Dolberg K. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
17. Buchanan T. 13. Conde D. (G) 32. Lopez H. 1. Luiz Junior (G) 9. Mikautadze G. 7. Moreno G. 26. Navarro P. 10. Parejo D. 24. Pedraza A.	41. Alders G. 43. Bounida R. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 4. Itakura K. 7. Moro R. 68. Ouazane A. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L. 48. Steur S. 37. Sutalo J.
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Grim F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Wijndal O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Moleiro A. ↓, Buchanan T. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Oluwaseyi T. ⚽, Marin R. (A),
54', Regeer Y. ↓, Itakura K. ↑,
60', Mourino S. 🟨,
61', 1 - 1, Gloukh O. ⚽,
71', Partey T. 🟨,
71', Dolberg K. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
71', Mokio J. ↓, Steur S. ↑,
72', Pepe N. ↓, Mikautadze G. ↑,
72', Perez A. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
74', Partey T. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
80', Marin R. 🟨,
84', Gloukh O. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
84', Wijndal O. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
88', Bouwman A. 🟨,
90', 1 - 2, Edvardsen O. ⚽, Gaaei A. (A),

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Villarreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Villarreal is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Eto'o E. (Inactive) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Gueye P. (Yellow Cards) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) Ibrahimovic M. (Inactive) Tomiyasu T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Weghorst W. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Pedraza A. (Broken nose)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Villarreal: 1.04%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	2:3	-1	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
17.01.26	Betis - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Villarreal - Deportivo Alavés	3:1 ✺
03.01.26	Elche - Villarreal	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Villarreal - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.12.25	Racing Santander - Villarreal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
17.01.26	Ajax - Go Ahead Eagles	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	6:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.26	Telstar - Ajax	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Ajax - Seraing	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
20.12.25	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLWWT

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