Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 26

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vinotinto		Barcelona Guayaquil

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.1	2.1	Watch
	3	3.2	2.1
	3.3	3.25	2.08	Watch
	3.46	3.38	2.15
	3.57	2.92	2.24	Watch
	3.1	3	2.1
	3.85	3.1	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↓ (4.38)	3.14 ↓ (3.4)	2.12 ↑ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
27%

Draw
29.4%

Barcelona Guayaquil
43.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

27.2%

51.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

26.6%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vinotinto's performance.

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barcelona Guayaquil might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vinotinto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barcelona Guayaquil could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	18.2%	63.6%

Vinotinto - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Vinotinto will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Barcelona will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mitre L. (G) 23. Gomez L. 36. Nardelli G. 4. Aguirre A. (C) 2. Iriarte I. 11. Mina A. 5. Coba K. 30. Julio M. 18. Ushina K. 10. Luna D. 17. Monti R.	16. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 18. Carabali B. 3. Arreaga X. 37. Campi G. 4. Vallecilla G. 30. Oyola B. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 17. Montano J. 13. Corozo J. 21. Valiente J. 9. Rivero O.
Substitutes
13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 26. Hernandez E. 77. Ibarra R. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J. 8. Melo A. 3. Micolta C. 6. Ona C. 22. Rodriguez E.	23. Arroyo D. 41. Calle P. 26. Castillo Segura B. D. 6. Chala A. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 7. Gomez J. 15. Guerra F. 2. Mario Pineida 33. Parrales M. 77. Pinargote Lara K. D. (G) 14. Rangel A. 22. Souza de Almeida L.
Coaches
Grabowski J.	Rescalvo I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Luna D. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
69', Julio M. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
69', Oyola B. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
70', Valiente J. ↓, Parrales M. ↑,
81', Ushina K. ↓, Melo A. ↑,
82', Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↓, Arroyo D. ↑,
90+2', Mina A. ↓, Carrasco Bonilla M. A. ↑,
90+2', Monti R. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
90+4', 0 - 1, Parrales M. ⚽, Corozo J. (A),
90+5', Parrales M. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

Vinotinto has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Barcelona has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vinotinto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Barcelona is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.08.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Vinotinto	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
14.08.25	Gualaceo - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.08.25	Vinotinto - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
04.08.25	Delfín - Vinotinto	3:3 ✺
26.07.25	Vinotinto - Orense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLTL
- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.08.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Orense	2:0 ✺
24.07.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Delfín - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.05.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Vinotinto	2:1

Upcoming Matches