Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 38

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Tonino Benelli (Pesaro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Vis Pesaro		Sambenedettese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.65	3.35	1.92
	3.66	3.43	1.97
	3.62	3.59	1.88	Watch
	3.5	3.1	1.91
	3.54	3.54	1.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↓ (4.63)	3.4 ↓ (3.73)	1.93 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vis Pesaro
25.5%

Draw
27%

Sambenedettese
47.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

24.7%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

23.5%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vis Pesaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vis Pesaro's performance.

Sambenedettese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sambenedettese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vis Pesaro than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vis Pesaro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sambenedettese than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sambenedettese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Vis Pesaro - Sambenedettese Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Sambenedettese will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Guarnone A. (G) 6. Di Renzo G. 13. Primasso A. 5. Tonucci D. 17. Paganini L. 7. Pucciarelli M. 24. Berengo N. 20. Giovannini R. 28. Machin J. 10. Di Paola M. 9. Nicastro F.	22. Cultraro G. (G) 4. Zini A. 21. Dalmazzi A. 17. Pezzola L. 7. Marranzino P. 18. Candellori K. 24. Alfieri V. 37. Toure M. 80. Piccoli M. 47. Konate A. 9. Eusepi U.
Substitutes
63. Barranco G. 27. Bastianelli R. 77. Durmush M. 19. Ferrari T. 72. Franchetti Rosada L. 25. Fraternale A. 22. Fratti D. (G) 14. Jallow S. 55. Mariani E. 2. Piras M. 1. Pozzi A. (G) 29. Salati U. 99. Ventre A. 21. Vezzoni F. 3. Zoia R.	8. Bongelli R. 5. Chelli M. 32. Chiatante F. 30. Gigante G. 82. Lonardo E. 6. Lulli L. 19. Margarita M. 70. Martins K. 1. Orsini T. (G) 34. Ponzanetti M. (G) 99. Semprini M. 27. Stoppa M. 15. Zoboletti A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Zini A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Berengo N. ↓, Jallow S. ↑,
46', Tonucci D. 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, Paganini L. ⚽,
56', Giovannini R. 🟨,
64', Giovannini R. ↓, Vezzoni F. ↑,
77', Di Renzo G. ↓, Ventre A. ↑,
78', Alfieri V. ↓, Stoppa M. ↑,
88', Eusepi U. ↓, Semprini M. ↑,
88', Dalmazzi A. ↓, Gigante G. ↑,
88', Marranzino P. ↓, Lonardo E. ↑,
89', Tonucci D. ↓, Barranco G. ↑,
89', Pucciarelli M. ↓, Durmush M. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 1, Paganini L. ⚽,
90+7', Paganini L. 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 2, Lonardo E. ⚽,
90+9', 2 - 3, Toure M. ⚽,
90+10', 🟨,
90+10', Zini A. 🟥,
90+11', Lonardo E. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vis Pesaro won 2.

Vis Pesaro is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sambenedettese has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sambenedettese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sambenedettese is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Vis Pesaro won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Vis Pesaro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Sambenedettese	8	1	2	5	11:14	-3	5
20	Vis Pesaro	8	1	1	6	10:19	-9	4

Last Results with these Odds

Sambenedettese - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 55.45%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSD Vis Pesaro 1898
Italian Serie C Group B
18.04.26	Ravenna - Vis Pesaro	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Vis Pesaro - Carpi	3:0 ✺
04.04.26	Ascoli - Vis Pesaro	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Vis Pesaro - Perugia	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Vis Pesaro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLLT
- Sambenedettese Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
18.04.26	Sambenedettese - Pontedera	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Sambenedettese - Arezzo	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Pineto - Sambenedettese	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	Ternana - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Sambenedettese - Campobasso	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
20.12.25	Sambenedettese - Vis Pesaro	0:2
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.25	Sambenedettese - Vis Pesaro	2:0
Italian Serie C Group B
14.03.21	Vis Pesaro - Sambenedettese	1:3
14.11.20	Sambenedettese - Vis Pesaro	2:0
18.01.20	Sambenedettese - Vis Pesaro	0:1
08.09.19	Vis Pesaro - Sambenedettese	2:1
22.01.19	Vis Pesaro - Sambenedettese	1:1

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