Match Info

NETHERLANDS: KNVB BEKER - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 21 December 2023, Thursday

Location: GelreDome (Arnhem)

Referee: Dieperink R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Vitesse		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	3.3	4	2	Watch
	3.1	3.4	1.98	Watch
	3.4	3.75	2	Watch
	2.45	3.55	2.77
	3.4	3.88	2.07
	3.1	3.5	2
	3.32	3.72	2.03	Watch
	3.2	3.6	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.41)	3.68 ↑ (3.45)	2.11 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitesse
29.8%

Draw
25.6%

Heerenveen
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

27%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

27.6%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitesse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitesse's form might have worsened.

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Heerenveen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitesse than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitesse, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Heerenveen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	18.2%	45.5%

Vitesse - Heerenveen Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Vitesse will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Heerenveen will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Schubert M. (G) 6. Oroz D. 29. Isimat-Mirin N. 15. Hendriks R. 13. Cornelisse E. 20. Meulensteen M. 22. Domgjoni T. 42. Manhoef M. 17. Kozlowski K. 25. de Regt G. 8. van Ginkel M.	13. van der Hart M. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. van Beek S. (C) 5. Bochniewicz P. 7. Kohlert M. 33. Haye T. 19. Olsson S. 17. Nunnely C. 28. Brouwers L. 20. Sahraoui O. 11. van Amersfoort P.
Substitutes
44. Altena J. 7. Boutrah A. 55. Bramel T. (G) 56. Egbring M. 1. Room E. (G) 52. Symons K. 21. Tielemans M. 43. Van Zwam G. 58. Visser A.	15. Ali H. 23. Bekkema J. (G) 2. Hall D. 9. Karlsbakk D. S. 18. Nicolaescu I. 44. Noppert A. (G) 21. Nunumete D. 26. Tahiri A. 40. van Ee E. 6. van Ottele S. 24. Walemark P. 14. Webster C.
Coaches
Cornelisse T.	Van Wonderen K.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vitesse won 1.

Vitesse is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Heerenveen is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 28 head-to-head matches Vitesse won 9 matches, drawn 12 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 52-46.

Including matches at home between the teams Vitesse won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 28-25.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitesse Arnhem
Dutch Eredivisie
17.12.23	Almere City - Vitesse	5:0 ✺
10.12.23	Vitesse - Heracles Almelo	2:0 ✺
02.12.23	Fortuna Sittard - Vitesse	3:1 ✺
25.11.23	Ajax - Vitesse	5:0 ✺
11.11.23	Vitesse - Heerenveen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL
- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
16.12.23	Heerenveen - Volendam	1:2 ✺
07.12.23	PSV Eindhoven - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
01.12.23	Heerenveen - Almere City	3:0 ✺
25.11.23	Heerenveen - Fortuna Sittard	3:0 ✺
11.11.23	Vitesse - Heerenveen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
11.11.23	Vitesse - Heerenveen	1:3
Club Friendly
22.03.23	Heerenveen - Vitesse	1:1
Dutch Eredivisie
28.01.23	Heerenveen - Vitesse	1:3
20.08.22	Vitesse - Heerenveen	0:4
08.05.22	Vitesse - Heerenveen	1:2
30.10.21	Heerenveen - Vitesse	1:2
06.02.21	Heerenveen - Vitesse	1:0

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