Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 4 - ROUND 12

Date: 25 November 2023, Saturday


	Vitoria		Portugalete

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.8	2.8
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.7	3.02	2.48
	2.66	3.02	2.51
	2.76	2.89	2.54
	2.45	2.9	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.02)	2.92 ↓ (3.1)	2.69 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria
35.3%

Draw
31%

Portugalete
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

29.2%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

28.5%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitoria's form might have worsened.

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portugalete's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitoria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Portugalete, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )).

Vitoria in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Portugalete is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Vitoria will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vitoria won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Vitoria won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Vitoria
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
18.11.23	Derio - Vitoria	0:1 ✺
11.11.23	Vitoria - Anaitasuna	2:0 ✺
05.11.23	Aurrerá Ondarroa - Vitoria	0:1 ✺
28.10.23	Vitoria - Basconia	1:1 ✺
21.10.23	Añorga - Vitoria	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWTW
- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
19.11.23	Portugalete - Pasaia	2:0 ✺
12.11.23	Padura - Portugalete	0:2 ✺
04.11.23	Portugalete - Touring KE	2:1 ✺
29.10.23	San Ignacio - Portugalete	0:3 ✺
22.10.23	Portugalete - Beasain	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
01.04.23	Portugalete - Vitoria	1:2
04.12.22	Vitoria - Portugalete	2:0
20.02.22	Portugalete - Vitoria	2:0
17.10.21	Vitoria - Portugalete	1:1
22.12.19	Vitoria - Portugalete	1:0

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