Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Vitoria Guimarães		Alverca

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.85	3.35	4.25	Watch
	1.86	3.6	4.76
	1.8	3.54	4.64	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.4	Watch
	1.86	3.55	4.73	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.85)	3.48 ↓ (3.54)	4.52 ↑ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
51.9%

Draw
27.2%

Alverca
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

26.7%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

25.4%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	14.3%	7.1%

Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Vitoria Guimarães will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vitoria Guimarães will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Charles Silva (G) 66. Strata T. 28. Thiago Balieiro 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 16. Beni 23. Sousa D. 11. Gustavo 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 90. Ndoye A.	13. Gomes A. (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 26. Rhaldney 18. Lincoln 12. James I. 20. Figueiredo 9. Marezi 10. Chiquinho
Substitutes
18. Arcanjo T. 22. Blanco F. 19. Camara O. 25. Castillo J. (G) 17. Lebedenko O. 2. Maga 6. Mitrovic M. 30. Nogueira G. 75. Oliveira A.	14. Baseya S. 19. Clairicia M. 98. Garcia F. 6. Gui D. 3. Martinez J. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G) 17. Moreira V. 91. Sandro Lima 82. Spencer D.
Coaches
Pinto L.	Custodio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Sousa D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 1 - 0, Samu ⚽, Ndoye A. (A),
56', Sousa D. ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Figueiredo ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
72', Marezi ↓, Sandro Lima ↑,
73', Gustavo ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
85', Chiquinho ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
85', Lincoln ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
85', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
85', Saviolo N. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
86', Rhaldney 🟨,
89', Naves 🟨,
90', Rhaldney ↓, Gui D. ↑,
90+1', Figueiredo ↓, Baseya S. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 10).

In recent matches, Guimarães has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alverca's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Guimarães is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S. (Injury) Chissumba (Injury) Diarra S. (Muscle Injury) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Alverca: Leo Chu (Injury) Moreira V. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Guimarães won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8
14	Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5

Last Results with these Odds

Vitoria Guimarães - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 51.08%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
21.02.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
30.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLWL
- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
21.02.26	Alverca - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Tondela - Alverca	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Benfica - Alverca	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Alverca - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Braga - Alverca	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
28.09.25	Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0

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