Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Sport


	Braga		Alverca

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.2	6.5	Watch
	1.4	4.6	7.5
	1.46	4.25	6.4	Watch
	1.5	4.43	6.78
	1.49	4.36	6.55	Watch
	1.5	4	6
	1.53	4.37	6.76	Watch
	1.5	4.2	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.39)	4.3 ↓ (4.81)	6.6 ↓ (7.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
63.8%

Draw
21.9%

Alverca
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

19.7%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.5%

19%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Braga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.1%	5.9%	0%

Braga - Alverca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1 - Braga (1.69) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Users Predictions: Braga will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Braga will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Braga (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Alverca (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hornicek L. (G) 6. Vitor Carvalho 37. Barisic A. 26. Arrey-Mbi B. 2. Gomez V. 29. Gorby 8. Moutinho J. 77. Martinez G. 10. Zalazar R. 21. Horta R. (C) 18. Victor P.	13. Gomes A. (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 21. Abdulai S. 8. Amorim 12. James I. 18. Lincoln 20. Figueiredo 91. Sandro Lima
Substitutes
36. Bellaarouch A. (G) 20. Dorgeles M. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 27. Grillitsch F. 5. Lelo L. 39. Navarro F. 15. Oliveira P. 50. Rodrigues D. 95. Vidigal S.	14. Baseya S. 10. Chiquinho 19. Clairicia M. 6. Gui D. 37. Kauan 9. Marezi 3. Martinez J. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G) 17. Moreira V.
Coaches
Vicens C.	Custodio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Vitor Carvalho ⚽,
23', 2 - 0, Zalazar R. ⚽, Horta R. (A),
30', 3 - 0, Victor P. ⚽, Zalazar R. (A),
33', Vitor Carvalho 🟨,
36', James I. 🟨,
45', 4 - 0, Horta R. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sandro Lima ↓, Marezi ↑,
46', James I. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
46', Lincoln ↓, Chiquinho ↑,
47', Chiquinho 🟨,
67', Zalazar R. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
67', Horta R. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
70', Figueiredo ↓, Clairicia M. ↑,
74', Gorby ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
74', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Oliveira P. ↑,
79', 5 - 0, Navarro F. ⚽, Victor P. (A),
80', Abdulai S. ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
80', Moutinho J. ↓, Vidigal S. ↑,
90+4', Vidigal S. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 and 10).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Braga has had a series of away games.

In this match, Braga is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Braga: El Ouazzani A. (Foot Injury) Lagerbielke G. (Red Card) Noro J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Alverca: Leo Chu (Injury) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury) Paulo A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Alverca: Diarra S. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Braga won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Braga - Nottingham Forest	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
18.01.26	Tondela - Braga	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
14.01.26	Fafe - Braga	2:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
10.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	2:1 ✺
07.01.26	Benfica - Braga	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWLLW
- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
17.01.26	Alverca - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Alverca - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Estoril Praia - Alverca	4:1 ✺
22.12.25	Alverca - Porto	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Arouca - Alverca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
17.08.25	Alverca - Braga	0:3

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