Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Estoril Praia		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.5	2.82	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.75
	2.42	3.25	2.82	Watch
	2.47	3.37	3.05
	2.39	3.35	2.98	Watch
	2.38	3.25	2.8
	2.43	3.58	2.94	Watch
	2.45	3.25	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.5)	3.36 ↑ (3.25)	2.88 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
39.1%

Draw
28.1%

Vitoria Guimarães
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

29.1%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

30.8%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	35.7%	28.6%

Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Guimarães will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 10.6% – 60.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 2 - 40%). Guimarães (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Estoril (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Guimarães (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robles J. (G) 44. Boma K. 25. Bacher F. 24. Amaral P. 2. Sanchez R. 7. Lominadze N. 10. Holsgrove J. 12. Carvalho J. (C) 99. Guitane R. 9. Marques A. 14. Begraoui Y.	25. Castillo J. (G) 66. Strata T. 3. Nobrega M. 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 30. Nogueira G. 6. Mitrovic M. 19. Camara O. 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 90. Ndoye A.
Substitutes
22. Carvalho P. 20. Costa G. 11. Edwards K. 4. Ferro 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi 5. Tsoungui A. 16. Turk M. (G) 8. Xeka	22. Blanco F. 27. Charles Silva (G) 11. Gustavo 17. Lebedenko O. 2. Maga 33. Opara E. 80. Rocha R. 23. Sousa D. 28. Thiago Balieiro
Coaches
Cathro I.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
22', Ndoye A. 🟨,
26', Guitane R. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Samu ⚽, Nogueira G. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Guitane R. (A),
33', Lominadze N. 🟨,
34', 1 - 2, Mitrovic M. ⚽,
36', Nogueira G. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Lominadze N. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
56', 2 - 2, Marques A. ⚽, Guitane R. (A),
58', Nogueira G. ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
58', Saviolo N. ↓, Gustavo ↑,
64', Mendes J. II. 🟨,
65', 3 - 2, Marques A. ⚽, Holsgrove J. (A),
72', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
72', Samu ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
73', Amaral P. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
73', Sanchez R. ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
78', Marques A. ↓, Xeka ↑,
78', 4 - 2, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Pizzi (A),
82', Camara O. ↓, Opara E. ↑,
90+1', Guitane R. ↓, Ferro ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 1.

Estoril has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Guimarães is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Estoril: Lacximicant A. (Inactive) Xeka (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Guimarães: Arcanjo T. (Red Card) Beni (Yellow Cards) Oliveira N. (Red Card) Rivas Viondi O. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Estoril: Israelov O. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 21:30. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.8:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4:12	-8	2

Last Results with these Odds

Estoril Praia - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.79%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
19.01.26	Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia	0:5 ✺
03.01.26	Benfica - Estoril Praia	3:1 ✺
27.12.25	Estoril Praia - Alverca	4:1 ✺
19.12.25	Estoril Praia - Braga	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLWWL
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
18.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	0:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
10.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	2:1 ✺
28.12.25	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.4 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
16.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Estoril Praia	3:2
26.01.25	Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0
18.08.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Estoril Praia	1:0
02.03.24	Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3
01.10.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Estoril Praia	3:2
04.02.23	Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1
14.08.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Estoril Praia	1:0

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