Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 10

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo Nº5 Comp Desp Dr Antº Pime Machado (Guimarães)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Vitoria Guimarães B		Marco 09

	1	X	2
	2.18	2.98	3.15
	2.13	3.24	3.63
	2.27	3.01	3.28	Watch
	2.09	3.34	3.44
	2.2	3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.22)	3.11 ↑ (3.1)	3.35 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães B
42.6%

Draw
29.7%

Marco 09
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

30%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

26.3%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Marco 09 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães B than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vitoria Guimarães B that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Vitoria Guimarães B - Marco 09 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Lucas Furtado (G) 28. Thiago Balieiro 75. Oliveira A. 82. Dias F. 32. Tepe M. 46. Nunes H. (C) 80. Rocha R. 96. Rodrigo Silva 14. Duarte R. 62. Fernando Silva 87. Paula G.	99. Carvalho D. (G) 79. Erivaldo 18. Martins D. 3. Pedro M. (C) 5. Nandinho 6. Pacheco F. 10. Duarte D. 88. Silva D. 19. Ribeiro P. 57. Kibe 11. Mauro Ribeiro
Substitutes
79. Carvalho D. 99. Guilherme (G) 57. Martins J. 73. Miguel Vaz 70. Peixoto R. 37. Pinto H. 93. Rika 89. Vieira A.	27. Guimaraes B. 9. Marllon 53. Matos T. 21. Pedrosa C. 25. Pereira H. 2. Sousa B. 95. Sousa V. 26. Ze Couto (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Oliveira A. 🟨,
36', Pedro M. 🟨,
45', Nunes H. 🟨,
45+1', Ribeiro P. 🟨,
45+4', Ribeiro P. ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tepe M. ↓, Carvalho D. ↑,
56', Sousa V. 🟥,
57', Nandinho 🟨,
63', Kibe ↓, Sousa B. ↑,
69', Pedro M. 🟨,
72', 1 - 0, Nunes H. ⚽,
73', Duarte D. ↓, Matos T. ↑,
73', Mauro Ribeiro ↓, Andrezinho ↑,
73', Duarte R. ↓, Vieira A. ↑,
74', Paula G. ↓, Martins J. ↑,
81', Fernando Silva ↓, Miguel Vaz ↑,
89', Andrezinho 🟨,
90+4', Sousa B. 🟨,
90+8', Martins J. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

Guimarães B has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Marco is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Guimarães B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Guimarães B could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães B won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:7. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães B won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães B
Portuguese Liga 3
02.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Sanjoanense	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Fafe - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Trofense	1:2 ✺
24.09.25	Paredes - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLTLT
- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
01.11.25	Varzim - Marco 09	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Marco 09 - Trofense	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Marco 09 - Farense	0:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
05.10.25	Paredes - Marco 09	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Marco 09 - Braga B	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
10.08.25	Marco 09 - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
25.05.25	Marco 09 - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1
04.05.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Marco 09	3:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
17.03.24	Marco 09 - Vitoria Guimarães B	3:0
03.12.23	Vitoria Guimarães B - Marco 09	1:1

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