Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 14

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo Nº5 Comp Desp Dr Antº Pime Machado (Guimarães)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Vitoria Guimarães B		Paredes

	1	X	2
	2.52	2.92	2.68
	2.54	3.1	2.87
	2.59	3.04	2.82	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.8
	2.56	2.88	2.67
	2.45	2.9	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.43)	2.94 ↑ (2.84)	2.77 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães B
36.1%

Draw
31%

Paredes
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

32.3%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

31.1%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Paredes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães B than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paredes than the current prediction. (-4%)

Vitoria Guimarães B - Paredes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Guilherme (G) 76. Alcobia 79. Carvalho D. 14. Duarte R. 62. Fernando Silva 88. Nogueira M. 75. Oliveira A. (C) 87. Paula G. 72. Rodrigues T. 32. Tepe M. 56. Verdi S.	31. Matos F. (G) 2. Araujo P. 99. Balelo 3. Duarte D. P. 14. Erik 44. Ferreira P. (C) 23. Macedo Z. 7. Miguel 4. Pereira Pacheco R. F. 21. Veiga D. 84. Yuk J.
Substitutes
60. Deivid M. 81. Fernandes J. (G) 57. Martins J. 73. Miguel Vaz 70. Peixoto R. 37. Pinto H. 78. Ruca 95. Vunge J. 50. Zeega	24. Buby 8. Carvalho D. 9. Fonseca R. 16. Goncalves T. (G) 20. Lemos I. M. 6. Matheus Brito 5. Moreira Nuno 26. Santos Outeiro D. 29. Vasco Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Erik 🟨,
13', Tepe M. 🟨,
20', Alcobia 🟨,
31', Yuk J. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Yuk J. ⚽,
40', Matos F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 0 - 2, Yuk J. ⚽,
51', Duarte R. ↓, Ruca ↑,
53', Macedo Z. 🟨,
62', Macedo Z. ↓, Santos Outeiro D. ↑,
62', Balelo ↓, Fonseca R. ↑,
62', Yuk J. ↓, Buby ↑,
64', 0 - 3, Erik ⚽, Miguel (A),
68', 1 - 3, Nogueira M. ⚽,
72', Erik ↓, Lemos I. M. ↑,
73', Veiga D. 🟨,
77', Tepe M. ↓, Peixoto R. ↑,
77', Verdi S. ↓, Zeega ↑,
81', Duarte D. P. 🟨,
82', Miguel ↓, Matheus Brito ↑,
90', Rodrigues T. ↓, Miguel Vaz ↑,
90', Nogueira M. ↓, Vunge J. ↑,
90+1', Fonseca R. 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 7 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães B won 3.

Guimarães B is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paredes has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Guimarães B may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Guimarães B won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães B won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães B
Portuguese Liga 3
13.12.25	Braga B - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - São João de Ver	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Marco 09	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Sanjoanense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TWWWW
- USC Paredes
Portuguese Liga 3
13.12.25	Paredes - Varzim	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Trofense - Paredes	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Fafe - Paredes	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Paredes - Braga B	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Paredes - São João de Ver	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
24.09.25	Paredes - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
18.05.25	Paredes - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:2
27.04.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Paredes	3:3
16.02.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Paredes	2:1
04.10.24	Paredes - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
07.04.24	Vitoria Guimarães B - Paredes	0:2
17.12.23	Paredes - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:1

Vitoria Guimarães B - Paredes: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide