Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 13

Date: 8 December 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovenia	SportKlub 3


	Vitoria Guimarães		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.95	2.65	Watch
	2.82	2.92	2.68	Watch
	2.91	3.05	2.77
	2.87	3.02	2.68	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.63	Watch
	2.93	3.06	2.75	Watch
	2.8	3	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.59)	2.99 ↓ (3.03)	2.69 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
33.2%

Draw
31.7%

Gil Vicente
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

31.2%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

31.3%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.8%	22.2%	25%

Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 19 - 52.8%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 9 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 36.5% – 69.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Gil Vicente (votes: 3 - 20%). Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Gil Vicente (1.86) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -0.5 - Guimarães (2.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Gil Vicente (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castillo J. (G) 2. Maga 4. Rivas Viondi O. 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 30. Nogueira G. 16. Beni 19. Camara O. 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 7. Oliveira N.	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 48. Espigares A. 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 10. Esteves L. 77. Murilo de Souza 95. Garcia S. 11. Fernandes J. 89. Varela G.
Substitutes
22. Blanco F. 27. Charles Silva (G) 21. Felix V. 17. Lebedenko O. 6. Mitrovic M. 90. Ndoye A. 23. Sousa D. 66. Strata T. 28. Thiago Balieiro	17. Bermejo 29. Carlos Eduardo 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 20. Hevertton S. 28. Pereira D. 80. Rodrigues R. 7. Toure T. 6. Ze Carlos
Coaches
Pinto L.	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Ze Carlos 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Fernandes J. ↓, Toure T. ↑,
61', Esteves L. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
61', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
62', Oliveira N. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
62', Camara O. ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
63', Abascal R. 🟨,
75', Nogueira G. ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
77', Murilo de Souza ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
81', Ndoye A. 🟨,
84', Mendes J. II. 🟨,
87', Varela G. ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
87', da Silva Ventura A. 🟨,
89', Saviolo N. ↓, Felix V. ↑,
89', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
90+2', Hevertton S. 🟨,
90+4', Konan G. 🟨,
90+7', Garcia S. 🟨,
90+8', Mitrovic M. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 4.

Guimarães is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Gil Vicente has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Guimarães: Gustavo (Injury)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Moreira A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 35:26. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:11. (average 2.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Portuguese League Cup
04.12.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
28.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Mortágua	4:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 WWWWL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
29.11.25	Gil Vicente - Tondela	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	AVS - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
24.10.25	Alverca - Gil Vicente	0:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Académico de Viseu - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
11.04.25	Gil Vicente - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1
02.12.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	4:0
Taça de Portugal
08.02.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	3:1
Liga Portugal
28.01.24	Gil Vicente - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0
19.08.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	2:1
21.05.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	1:0
16.01.23	Gil Vicente - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1

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