Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do CD das Aves (Vila das Aves)

Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine


	AVS		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.5	1.62	Watch
	5.4	3.55	1.65	Watch
	5.83	3.72	1.68
	4.84	3.66	1.73	Watch
	5.48	3.65	1.74	Watch
	4.2	3.35	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.17 ↑ (4.84)	3.57 ↓ (3.66)	1.72 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AVS
18.3%

Draw
26.5%

Gil Vicente
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.5%

25.8%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.4%

25.7%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.6%	3.6%	92.9%

AVS - Gil Vicente Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Gil Vicente (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gil Vicente will win (26 of 28 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.32% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gil Vicente will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 14 - 93.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Joao Goncalves (G) 4. Bane S. 35. Semedo R. 42. Devenish C. 24. Kiki (C) 6. Assuncao G. 15. Grau J. 2. Spencer D. 11. Akinsola T. 14. Perea O. 7. Tomane	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 10. Esteves L. 77. Murilo de Souza 95. Garcia S. 11. Fernandes J. 9. Pablo
Substitutes
20. Duarte D. 19. Galletto T. 17. Lourenco B. 23. Mendonca G. 18. Nene 8. Pedro Lima 26. Ponck 12. Rivas D. 93. Simao (G)	17. Bermejo 48. Espigares A. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 20. Hevertton S. 27. Moreira A. 7. Toure T. 89. Varela G. 6. Ze Carlos
Coaches
Sousa J. P.	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Garcia S. ⚽, Murilo de Souza (A),
33', Ze Carlos 🟨,
44', Pablo (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bane S. ↓, Pedro Lima ↑,
46', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
65', Garcia S. 🟨,
71', Akinsola T. ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
71', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
71', Kiki ↓, Rivas D. ↑,
75', Pablo ↓, Varela G. ↑,
75', Fernandes J. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
75', Garcia S. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
76', Varela G. 🟨,
79', Assuncao G. 🟨,
80', Semedo R. ↓, Ponck ↑,
82', Elimbi M. 🟨,
82', Ze Carlos 🟨,
85', Nene (Pen),
88', 1 - 1, Nene ⚽, Pedro Lima (A),
88', Murilo de Souza ↓, Toure T. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

AVS has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Gil Vicente has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Gil Vicente is a strong favorite.

There will not play in AVS: Molina G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive) Carlos Eduardo (Inactive)

There are questionable in AVS: Algobia A. (Inactive) Kiki (Injury) Santos A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Fernandes J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, AVS won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, AVS won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
02.11.25	AVS - Tondela	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Santa Clara - AVS	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	AVS - Alverca	1:3 ✺
27.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - AVS	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	AVS - Benfica	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
03.11.25	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
24.10.25	Alverca - Gil Vicente	0:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Académico de Viseu - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
27.01.25	AVS - Gil Vicente	1:0
16.08.24	Gil Vicente - AVS	4:2

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