Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 10

Date: 3 November 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Gil Vicente		Santa Clara

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.05	3.9	Watch
	2.12	2.98	3.7	Watch
	2.54	2.92	3.11	Watch
				Watch
	2.22	3.1	3.89	Watch
	2.14	2.94	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.54)	3 ↑ (2.92)	3.67 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
42.7%

Draw
31.5%

Santa Clara
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

32.4%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

33.1%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gil Vicente's performance.

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gil Vicente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Clara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	7.9%	2.6%

Gil Vicente - Santa Clara Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 34 - 89.5%). Santa Clara will win (votes: 1 - 2.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 79.8% – 99.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Gil Vicente (1.41) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.5 - Santa Clara (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gil Vicente will win (14 of 18 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 18 - 78.3%). Santa Clara (votes: 3 - 13%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 6. Ze Carlos 77. Murilo de Souza 95. Garcia S. 11. Fernandes J. 9. Pablo	1. Gabriel Batista (C) 42. Lucas Soares 13. Rocha L. 23. Lima S. 64. Paulo Victor 35. Serginho 6. Adriano Firmino 8. Ferreira P. 70. Vinicius Lopes 29. Wendell 11. Brenner
Substitutes
17. Bermejo 48. Espigares A. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 20. Hevertton S. 82. Maia G. 88. Soyer B. 7. Toure T. 89. Varela G.	50. Afonso J. (G) 17. Costa J. 2. Diogo Calila 7. Elias Manoel 28. Luquinhas 3. Matheus Pereira 94. Silva H. 65. Tavares J. 21. Venancio F.
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Matos V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Pablo ⚽, Fernandes J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Lucas Soares 🟨,
53', Adriano Firmino 🟨,
55', Fernandes J. 🟨,
62', Fernandes J. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
62', Rocha L. 🟨,
72', Ze Carlos ↓, Varela G. ↑,
72', Pablo ↓, Bermejo ↑,
72', Brenner ↓, Elias Manoel ↑,
73', Wendell ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
73', Serginho ↓, Tavares J. ↑,
90', Garcia S. ↓, Maia G. ↑,
90', Murilo de Souza ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
90', Paulo Victor ↓, Costa J. ↑,
90+2', Maia G. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Gil Vicente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Gil Vicente is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive) Carlos Eduardo (Inactive) Esteves L. (Red Card)

There will not play in Santa Clara: Pacheco P. (Knee Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:19. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
24.10.25	Alverca - Gil Vicente	0:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Académico de Viseu - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWLW
- CD Santa Clara
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Braga - Santa Clara	5:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
25.10.25	Santa Clara - AVS	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Santa Clara - Tondela	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Santa Clara - Alverca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
15.03.25	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	0:1
25.10.24	Santa Clara - Gil Vicente	2:1
06.05.23	Santa Clara - Gil Vicente	3:2
29.12.22	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0
06.02.22	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	2:2
29.08.21	Santa Clara - Gil Vicente	1:0
20.02.21	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0

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