Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 9

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Suriname	SCCN
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Alverca		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.05	2.35	Watch
	3.05	2.98	2.42	Watch
	3.25	3.05	2.52
	40.00	17.46	1.00	Watch
				Watch
	3.09	3.02	2.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.47 ↑ (2.9)	5.91 ↑ (3.03)	2.14 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
13.1%

Draw
23.1%

Gil Vicente
63.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

30.9%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

30.7%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alverca's form might have worsened.

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+27%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gil Vicente's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+18.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alverca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-26.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gil Vicente, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	50%	35.7%

Alverca - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 5 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Gil Vicente (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gomes A. (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 21. Abdulai S. 8. Amorim 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 9. Marezi 20. Figueiredo	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 10. Esteves L. 77. Murilo de Souza 95. Garcia S. 11. Fernandes J. 9. Pablo
Substitutes
14. Baseya S. 28. Cabezas G. 22. Esteves G. 6. Gui D. 19. Leite T. 88. Martins D. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G) 11. Nuozzi C. 91. Sandro Lima	17. Bermejo 48. Espigares A. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 20. Hevertton S. 82. Maia G. 80. Rodrigues R. 89. Varela G. 6. Ze Carlos
Coaches
Custodio	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Esteves L. ⚽,
5', Buatu J. 🟨,
14', Figueiredo ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
27', Abdulai S. 🟨,
31', Garcia S. 🟨,
35', Naves 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, Garcia S. ⚽, Pablo (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Abdulai S. ↓, Gui D. ↑,
46', Buatu J. ↓, Espigares A. ↑,
51', 0 - 3, Pablo ⚽, Murilo de Souza (A),
58', Garcia S. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
63', Amorim ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
63', Marezi ↓, Sandro Lima ↑,
68', Pablo ↓, Varela G. ↑,
68', Fernandes J. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
70', 0 - 4, Fernandez M. ⚽, Esteves L. (A),
71', Ze Carlos 🟨,
74', Naves ↓, Baseya S. ↑,
74', Esteves L. 🟥,
79', Lincoln (Pen),
80', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
83', Cabezas G. 🟨,
89', Caseres F. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Gil Vicente could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Alverca: Chiquinho (Injury) Leo Chu (Inactive) Martinez J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive) Carlos Eduardo (Inactive) da Silva Ventura A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Alverca: James I. (Inactive)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Leiria - Alverca	3:2 penalties ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	AVS - Alverca	1:3 ✺
28.09.25	Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Santa Clara - Alverca	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWWLW
- Gil Vicente
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Académico de Viseu - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Braga - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 LWLWW

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