Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 12

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV3
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Gil Vicente		Tondela

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.95	Watch
	1.7	3.71	5.61
	1.61	3.84	5.65	Watch
				Watch
	1.73	3.69	5.46	Watch
	1.66	3.6	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.62)	3.67 ↓ (3.75)	5.42 ↓ (5.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
56.8%

Draw
25.8%

Tondela
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

25.1%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

24.2%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	4.8%	9.5%

Gil Vicente - Tondela Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Gil Vicente (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gil Vicente will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gil Vicente will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 95. Garcia S. 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Esteves L. 11. Fernandes J. 89. Varela G.	31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 60. Maviram E. 32. Rodriguez J. 15. Sithole S. 79. Felix H. 7. Pedro Maranhao 29. Siebatcheu J. 70. Ouattara M.
Substitutes
17. Bermejo 29. Carlos Eduardo 48. Espigares A. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 20. Hevertton S. 27. Moreira A. 80. Rodrigues R. 6. Ze Carlos	5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 17. Cavaleiro I. 6. Ceitil A. 10. Hodge J. 48. Manso T. 11. Rodriguez Y. 16. Rony Lopes 8. Tavares H.
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Bacci C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', Caseres F. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Pedro Maranhao (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Ouattara M. ↓, Cavaleiro I. ↑,
67', Fernandes J. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
71', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Manso T. ↑,
71', Felix H. ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
77', Varela G. ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
77', Caseres F. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
81', Fernandez M. 🟨,
82', Rodriguez J. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
82', Bebeto ↓, Ceitil A. ↑,
89', Moreira A. ↓, Bermejo ↑,
89', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 3.

Gil Vicente is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tondela is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tondela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gil Vicente is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive) Carlos Eduardo (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 1.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	AVS - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
24.10.25	Alverca - Gil Vicente	0:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Académico de Viseu - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWWLW
- CD Tondela
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Tondela - Caldas	0:1 penalties ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	AVS - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.10.25	Tondela - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
22.07.22	Gil Vicente - Tondela	1:1
Liga Portugal
08.05.22	Gil Vicente - Tondela	3:0
28.12.21	Tondela - Gil Vicente	0:3
Portuguese League Cup
24.07.21	Tondela - Gil Vicente	0:1
Liga Portugal
28.02.21	Tondela - Gil Vicente	1:0
17.10.20	Gil Vicente - Tondela	1:1
14.07.20	Gil Vicente - Tondela	3:2

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