Match Info

Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 14 April 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Martinez S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN, ESPN Premium
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	Disney+
China	K-Ball
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Disney+, TyC Sports Internacional


	Vélez Sársfield		Sarmiento de Junín

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	6.25	Watch
	1.75	3.25	5
	1.68	3.45	5.5
	1.68	3.48	6
	1.65	3.46	6.18	Watch
	1.68	3.45	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.87)	3.43 ↑ (3.1)	5.74 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
56%

Draw
27.5%

Sarmiento de Junín
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

29.9%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

29.3%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vélez Sársfield's performance.

Sarmiento de Junín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vélez Sársfield that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarmiento de Junín than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.6%	9.4%	0%

Vélez Sársfield - Sarmiento de Junín Predictions

Users Predictions: Vélez Sársfield will win (29 of 32 users predict this - 90.63%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.53% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vélez Sársfield will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchiori T. (G) 14. Lagos A. 34. Fernandez D. 31. Gomez V. 3. Gomez E. 32. Ordonez C. 33. Vazquez K. A. 26. Bouzat A. (C) 28. Carrizo M. 7. Santos M. 10. Montoro A.	42. Acosta L. (G) 17. Vallejos J. 14. Roncaglia F. 2. Insaurralde J. 39. Godoy J. 15. Suhr L. 25. Villalba C. 23. Gimenez E. 28. Gho J. 10. Carabajal G. 18. Morales I.
Substitutes
43. Andrada I. 5. Baeza C. 8. Galvan T. 39. Machuca I. 2. Mammana E. 23. Pernicone P. 20. Pizzini F. 46. Porcel M. 12. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Roldan L. 40. Silvero T.	26. Arismendi Y. 12. Ayala T. (G) 22. Burgoa V. 33. Diaz G. 20. Frias F. 5. Garcia M. 24. Molina A. 36. Morales S. 8. Paradela F. . Renteria J. 38. Rosales M. 34. Seyral A.
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Sanguinetti J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Vallejos J. 🟨,
36', Carrizo M. 🟨,
41', Bouzat A. 🟨,
45', Insaurralde J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Vazquez K. A. ↓, Machuca I. ↑,
55', Carabajal G. ↓, Frias F. ↑,
58', Suhr L. 🟨,
64', Gho J. ↓, Diaz G. ↑,
64', Suhr L. ↓, Burgoa V. ↑,
66', Montoro A. ↓, Galvan T. ↑,
71', 0 - 1, Frias F. ⚽, Diaz G. (A),
72', Frias F. 🟨,
80', Morales I. 🟨,
82', Lagos A. ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
83', Morales I. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
88', Garcia M. 🟨,
90+1', Santos M. (Pen),
90+2', Machuca I. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vélez won 3.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Sarmiento could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Sarmiento have a series of home games.

In this match Vélez is a favorite.

There will not play in Vélez: Braian Romero (Yellow Cards) Cavanagh T. (Muscle Injury) Fernandez M. (Inactive) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Gordon J. (Inactive) Monzon F. (Injury) Pellegrini M. (Muscle Injury) Pernicone P. (Knee Injury) Quiros A. (Red Card)

There will not play in Sarmiento: Andrada J. (Inactive) Diaz G. (Inactive) Orihuela R. (Yellow Cards) Rosales M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Vélez: Carrizo M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sarmiento: Arismendi Y. (Inactive)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Vélez won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12:6 (average 1.5:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Vélez won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 2:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.53%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Vélez Sársfield	0:4 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.04.25	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
17.03.25	Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLWLW
- Sarmiento de Junín
Copa Argentina
09.04.25	Sarmiento de Junín - Central Córdoba de Rosario	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.04.25	Sarmiento de Junín - River Plate	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Gimnasia La Plata - Sarmiento de Junín	0:0 ✺
15.03.25	Sarmiento de Junín - Talleres de Córdoba	0:0 ✺
08.03.25	Sarmiento de Junín - Barracas Central	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.12.24	Vélez Sársfield - Sarmiento de Junín	1:0
14.07.23	Sarmiento de Junín - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
22.08.22	Vélez Sársfield - Sarmiento de Junín	1:1
24.09.21	Sarmiento de Junín - Vélez Sársfield	0:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
21.02.21	Sarmiento de Junín - Vélez Sársfield	1:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
17.06.17	Vélez Sársfield - Sarmiento de Junín	5:1
08.02.16	Sarmiento de Junín - Vélez Sársfield	1:0

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